Why Scotland could end up with two general elections this year

Humza Yousaf’s resignation as first minister of Scotland has worsened a deep crisis within his party. Having angered the Scottish Greens by tearing up the coalition agreement that he’d once described as “worth its weight in gold”, he then learned they would support a Tory motion of no confidence in him that is due to be tabled at Holyrood later this week.

This was followed by an even more portentous motion, proposed by Labour, of no confidence in the Scottish government – something that could conceivably trigger an early Scottish election, which would very likely deliver a Labour (or Labour-led) administration at Holyrood for the first time since 2007. The collapse of the SNP government, if not the cause of independence, carries an air of inevitability.

Yes. The extra Holyrood vote would be termed an “extraordinary general election”. But the Scotland Act 1998 states that Westminster and Holyrood elections cannot be held on the same day.

Yes. Scotland works on a fixed-term parliament system, modelled on the German post-war constitution (devised by the British) which tries to make sure that, even with potentially unstable coalition politics, there aren’t too many unscheduled elections, and the first minister can’t gain an unfair advantage by calling an election at a time of maximum party advantage (as the prime minister in London can).

Yes, but it would take a remarkable display of the traditional Scottish talent for machine politics. The minority SNP government could carry on with a new first minister provided they are approved by MSPs – thus they would need the support from some of the opposition, such as the Greens or Alex Salmond’s breakaway independence party, Alba. If a first minister can carry the support of a majority of MSPs he or she can remain in office until a scheduled election.

Mostly likely no-one, in the sense that the Scottish electoral system of modified proportional representation and the use of the “alternative vote” means that it is highly unlikely that any party even in the most propitious of circumstances could win an overall majority (though the SNP did, just, score this remarkable achievement in 2011). Coalitions are the rule in Scotland.

However, it will be perfectly clear who has lost: the SNP will be well down on its tally at the 2021 elections; and the Scottish Greens may also be punished. The Tories have also lost ground, but because they’ve fallen by less than the SNP they may actually gain some seats (this is also true of the Westminster elections). So the big winner will be Anas Sarwar, leader of the Labour Party in Scotland; and Keir Starmer. An early Scottish election, on the back of encouraging opinion polls, by-elections, local elections and the odd defection to Labour all add to this sense of momentum, a vital factor in electoral success.

Contenders include the runner-up from the last contest, Kate Forbes – though her relatively small-c conservative personal social attitudes and more fiscally cautious approach may still be problematic for her colleagues. Stephen Flynn, party leader in the Commons, is easily the most formidable figure, but he’s not in the Scottish parliament at the moment. Other more SNP establishment contenders include John Swinney, Angus Robertson, Neil Gray, and Jenny Gilruth.

Even in its current weakened state, it will still be a force to reckon with, and far stronger than, say, the Tories are nationally at the moment. Around a third of Scots will still back the SNP for Westminster, Holyrood, or both (though the polls show the SNP will do marginally better in the Scottish than the UK election, and Labour vice versa). Indeed the SNP might still outpoll Labour in either or both contests.

Nonetheless they will lose power, influence and status in both legislatures. After an election defeat, and depending on what happens now, the SNP may have to organise another leadership contest, and sort out its relationship, if any, with the rival nationalist Alba party, led by ex-SNP first minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond.

Also on the agenda will be the following: the best strategy to achieve independence; so-called culture wars issues such as gender identity; and the state of the party’s organisation, after multiple scandals.

Labour will not agree to another independence referendum; there’s not a large enough basis in the opinion polls, and the SNP hasn’t got a strategy to win the vote, so it’s off the agenda for the next few years.