What is happening in the Rochdale by-election?

The already heated battle for Rochdale (the parliamentary by-election to be held on Thursday 29 February) has been thrown into disarray by sensational allegations made against the Labour candidate, Azhar Ali, when remarks he made some months ago came to light at the weekend. Ali told a private Labour meeting after the attacks that the Israeli government had removed its border security to enable the Hamas atrocities: “The Egyptians are saying that they warned Israel 10 days earlier... Americans warned them a day before [that] there’s something happening... They deliberately took the security off, they allowed... that massacre that gives them the green light to do whatever they bloody want.” He also attacked Keir Starmer: “A lot of the MPs I’ve spoken to, non-Muslim MPs, feel that on this issue, he’s lost the confidence of the parliamentary party.” Ali has since apologised and retracted his remarks, indicating he fell for an internet conspiracy theory. But despite his apology, the Labour Party has withdrawn its support for Ali.

A parallel controversy has enveloped the Green Party candidate, as their candidate has stood down on account of Islamaphobic tweets from a few years ago. The energetic and divisive presence of George Galloway has only added to the chaos, with the controversial politician running an anti-Labour protest campaign as a candidate for the Workers Party of Britain. The irony is that, distressing as it may be, it may have little impact on electoral politics…

Because nominations are closed, so they couldn’t even if they wanted to (which they probably do). Whatever happens to Ali, aside from passing away before or on polling day, his name will be on the ballot paper as the official Labour Party candidate. Labour could replace him as candidate for the subsequent general election, whether he wins or not; and they could choose to abandon and disown him, but that wouldn’t stop people from being able to mark a cross next to his name on election day. One of the many ironies is that with Ali being completely denounced by Starmer, he, Ali, might pick up a few more votes.

It will damage the Labour vote, and possibly enough to allow Galloway to sneak past and nick a victory on a fairly modest share of the vote. What it will not mean is a Conservative victory; their vote was poor in 2019 and the party has obviously since become even less popular in places such as Rochdale, which is as “left behind” as ever.

In his view, he is giving the people of Rochdale the opportunity to send a message to the elites in London and indeed the whole world, that the situation in Palestine is indefensible and to let the people of Gaza know that they have allies in the West. Others think him a chancer cynically using the grievances of Muslim people for his own political purposes and to restart his political career, again.

Oh yes. Galloway, 70 this year, is one of the veterans of the British political scene. First elected to the Commons in 1983 as a Labour member to represent Glasgow Hillhead (thereby removing the leader of the SDP, Roy Jenkins), he continued to campaign for leftist and Middle East causes and against Yankee imperialism until he and the Blair-era party leadership finally parted company and he was expelled from Labour. In 2004, he helped form Respect, a coalition of the Socialist Workers Party and the Muslim Association of Britain. He took Bethnal Green and Bow from the incumbent Labour MP, Oona King. He declined to stand again, but did successfully contest the Bradford West by-election in 2012, again for Respect, winning with an unexpected landslide. Again causes associated with the Middle East were key to his victory. He lost the seat in 2015. In 2021 he failed to take Batley and Spen on behalf of his Workers Party of Britain, where he campaigned on the usual themes.

With his populism, political trademark props (hat, beard), overheated rhetoric and taste for hard combat, Galloway is a sort of mirror image hard left version of Nigel Farage, but with more electoral success. Labour should not underestimate him.

The humanitarian crisis, the 28,000 plus deaths, the International Court of Justice suggesting Israel has a case to answer for genocide have all shifted public opinion, and especially among people on the left and/or in Muslim communities. That sentiment was, presumably, what councillor Ali was responding to when he offered his ill-fated opinions. But, as has been seen with other Labour figures, the sympathy for the plight of the Palestinian people isn’t confined to one candidate in Rochdale (or indeed the Labour movement).

It is such a confused and confusing picture it’s unusually difficult to say. The Muslim community comprises about 30 per cent of the constituency, and national polling suggests Labour has lost about a half of its support among them, with none (net) defecting to the Conservatives, some to the Greens and Liberal Democrats but many undecided. Reform UK, with ex-Labour MP Simon Danczuk running for them, might also attract some disaffected voters, but not so much from the Muslim community. As an MP, Danczuk’s membership of the Labour Party was suspended in 2015 after reports he had exchanged explicit messages with a 17-year-old girl. He apologised and pleaded the incident had been “inappropriate and stupid”.

Most likely, Galloway will win a substantial protest vote, but given the size of the Labour vote in the seat – about 50 per cent in 2019 for the late Tony Lloyd – even if he wins most of the assumed Labour Muslim vote, which is around 15 per cent of the whole, that might not be sufficient to deprive Ali of victory, even with some more radical/Corbynite support for Galloway thrown in. It might be close, though.

(As a further historical footnote, Labour did manage to lose a by-election in Rochdale back in 1972, when it was taken by local Liberal councillor Cyril Smith, whose reputation has since sunk very low.)

There are no good scenarios for Starmer. On balance, the least bad outcome would be a Galloway victory. This could be explained as a meaningless one-off, a protest vote with no implications for the general election. Labour would be right to point to an unsatisfactory candidate in a scrap with a unique backdrop. Galloway might well fail to hang onto the seat, and would be no more than a marginal irritant in the Commons between now and the general election in a few months; or else he’d be a marginal irritant for rather longer – but not speaking ever as a Labour MP. The Rochdale loss could be set in contrast to stunning victories, prospectively in Wellingborough and Kingswood later this week.

A Labour victory with Ali would mean a much messier aftermath – with Tory claims that the new Labour MP is the unchanged face of Labour. The leadership would thus find itself lumbered with an MP who’d embraced an antisemitic conspiracy theory, which would be ideal for their enemies. Labour would have to try to deselect him, perhaps causing more splits locally and more high-profile rows about antisemitism. Interestingly, in that context, is not yet clear how they’ll handle Jeremy Corbyn’s attempt to run as Labour candidate in Islington.

About the only thing Starmer can gain some comfort from is that he may be assured there’ll be no Tory gain in Rochdale.