What does Rishi Sunak’s burst of activity tell us about his general election plans?

Rishi Sunak has launched a campaign to shore up the Conservative vote in next week’s local elections and his own position among his fractious backbenchers. The prime minister’s allies claim he is “setting the agenda” rather than reacting to unfavourable events as he begins the “long campaign” ahead of the general election.

Last Friday, Sunak made a speech on welfare reform, outlining plans to end what he called Britain’s “sick note culture”. On Monday, he held a rare Downing Street press conference as the bill allowing the government to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda reached the final stages of its parliamentary passage.

Over the next two days, he will be in Poland and Germany, highlighting the UK’s support for Ukraine and may make announcements about defence policy following growing demands from Tory MPs for him to boost the defence budget in a volatile world.

Local elections take place on 2 May for 2,600 seats in 107 English local authorities. The Tories did well when these seats were last fought in 2021 amid Boris Johnson’s “vaccine bounce”. The Tories and Labour are each defending almost 1,000 seats and the Tories could lose half of theirs.

Rather than the usual benchmark of seat losses or gains, Sunak will be most anxious about two mayoral contests. He will desperately hope that two Tory mayors retain their posts – Andy Street in the West Midlands and Ben Houchen in Tees Valley.

Symbolically, both are in the red wall the Tories captured from Labour at the 2019 general election. As one cabinet minister told The Independent: “One win would give us something to point to. Two wins would give us some hope for the general election.” But Sunak allies admit privately that two defeats could trigger a leadership crisis.

Not yet. Right-wingers do not believe the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill is tough enough to “stop the boats”. They point out, for example, that it will still allow individual legal challenges. Those who want higher defence spending will be happy only if the government announces a firm date for the budget to rise to 2.5 per cent of GDP. 

Most Sunak opponents are biding their time until the council and mayoral election results are known. Hardline critics believe the voters' verdict will offer their best – and probably final – chance of forcing a vote of confidence in Sunak as Tory leader before the general election. That would require 15 per cent of Tory MPs to request one – currently, 52 out of 346. Although he would likely win such a vote, allies fear it would leave him badly wounded and lacking authority over his party.

Tory sources say the prime minister is “on the front foot” again after a despondent period that even fuelled some speculation that he might throw in the towel if Tory MPs forced a confidence vote.

They insist he returned refreshed from his Easter break and is fully up for the fight against Labour. However, Keir Starmer’s party has a 20-point lead in the opinion polls and previous Tory fightbacks have failed to dent it.

Some senior Tories believe the prospect of flights deporting migrants to Rwanda in July might tempt Sunak to call a summer election. They feel the Tories’ prospects might be even worse by the autumn and that the prime minister would be “boxed in” and depicted by Labour as clinging to office.

However, the delay in flights to Kigali from the original target of spring means Mr Sunak will likely delay the election until October or November.