Could Rishi Sunak be about to face a fourth by-election?

Rishi Sunak is already facing three by-elections because of resignations from among his MPs – but could he be on the way to a fourth – or even fifth?

One of the three contests now in motion was triggered by Boris Johnson quitting his Uxbridge and West Ruislip seat ahead of a standards committee report into his conduct during Partygate.

A second was put on the cards after ally Nigel Adams followed him out of the door, and the third confirmed by the resignation of MP David Warburton over sexual harassment allegations.

The three contests, in Somerton and Frome, Selby, and Uxbridge, are all due to take place on 20 July.

The electoral battles will be hard for the governing party because, with the Tories so low in the polls, even the safest of seats will be up for grabs for the opposition parties.

Yet there are two further possible by-elections on the horizon that could inflict yet more political pain on the Conservatives.

One could be triggered by Nadine Dorries, who has said she will follow Mr Johnson out of the door – but is yet to do so.

The timing of any election in her Mid Bedfordshire seat will be partly up to the former culture secretary, who has said she will not step down until Downing Street explains why she hasn’t been given a peerage. It could be a long wait.

But there is another more immediate potential by-election which could emerge later this month. It hinges on the outcome of yet another committee report.

One of the issues that brought down Johnson’s government last year was how he handled the case of Christopher Pincher, a former minister who was accused of groping two men while drunk. Pincher denies any sexual misconduct, though he has said he “embarrassed” himself.

The former Europe minister is still an MP – at least for now – despite losing the Conservative Party whip and saying he will stand down at the next election, which is likely to take place next year.

But the standards committee – which is distinct from the privileges committee that brought sanctions against Mr Johnson last month – is now due to release a report into Pincher’s conduct. It will make a recommendation as to what action, if any, should be taken against him.

The committee cannot on its own strip him of his seat – but if any sanction given is severe enough, it could set in motion a chain of events that lead to a fourth by-election in his constituency of Tamworth.

Any MP suspended from the Commons for 10 sitting days or more can be the subject of a recall petition by their constituents. (Other ways in which MPs can find themselves subject to such a petition include being convicted of an offence that sees them awarded a custodial sentence, or being convicted of expenses fraud.)

If 10 per cent of the electorate in their constituency sign the petition, a “recall” by-election is triggered. The MP may or may not choose to stand again, though they may not be permitted to as a candidate for their party, in which case they may decide to do so as an independent.

The recall petition does not necessarily have to be successful for a by-election to be triggered: some MPs, like Johnson, have resigned of their own accord when faced with the prospect of such a battle.

But the provision has been successfully used twice, both times in 2019: once against a sitting Tory in Brecon and Radnorshire, and once against a former Labour MP in Peterborough.

Such petitions are not always successful: one attempt in North Antrim in 2018 did not attract the required number of signatures. But if voters are sufficiently outraged at Pincher’s alleged conduct and get their pens out, he could end up creating as much of a political headache for Sunak as he did for Johnson.

This article was amended on 6 July 2023. It originally referred to Chris Pincher being investigated by the privileges committee, but this was incorrect. He was investigated by the standards committee.