Will Tory failure to help renters cost them even more votes?

The Renters (Reform) Bill is becoming a landlords’ charter, according to campaigners for the rights of tenants in the private rented sector. Michael Gove, the housing secretary, has written to Conservative MPs announcing changes to the bill to “bolster landlord protections” in the hope that these will overcome the resistance to the planned law.

The revised bill started its parliamentary passage in the House of Lords this week and will come before the Commons after the Easter recess.

The bill had been delayed by the threat from a group of pro-landlord Tory MPs to vote against it. They argued that the abolition of “no-fault” evictions would tilt the balance too much in favour of tenants and make private renting uneconomic for landlords, forcing them to sell.

While this might make more properties available to allow renters to move into owner-occupation, it would restrict the private rental market and probably push up rents.

The bill will outlaw “no-fault” evictions only for new tenancies. A ban on existing tenancies would be postponed until the justice department has carried out a review of the ability of the courts to deal with any disputes – which obviously means it will not come in before the election, and the issue will then be dealt with by whichever party forms the next government.

According to the Renters’ Reform Coalition, this means that the ban would apply to fewer than 10 per cent of tenants by the time of the election.

The 2019 Tory manifesto said: “We will bring in a Better Deal for Renters, including abolishing ‘no fault’ evictions.” It also promised that “if you are one of the many good landlords, we will strengthen your rights of possession”.

Michael Gove told Laura Kuenssberg of the BBC last month that the bill “does a number of things to help people in the private rented sector, including ending no-fault evictions”. He even explained why this matters: “There are a small minority of unscrupulous landlords who use the threat of eviction either to jack up rents or to silence people who are complaining about the quality of their homes. It’s important that we deal with that abuse because the vast majority of landlords do a great job and you need a healthy private rented sector as part of a balanced housing economy.”

When he was pressed on whether no-fault evictions “will be banned” before the general election, he said: “That’s what it says in the bill.” That is no longer what it says in the bill but Gove did add, perhaps aware that the position might change: “The bill ends section 21.”

That is the section of the Housing Act 1988 that allows no-fault evictions, and it will be repealed, but the eviction power will remain on the statute book for existing tenancies.

The bottom line is that the Conservatives do not have many votes to lose from tenants in the private rented sector. According to YouGov, only 8 per cent of private renters intend to vote Tory, the same as among social housing tenants, and private renters are even more likely to vote Labour – excluding those who say they don’t know or won’t vote, more than half of them intend to vote Labour.

However, many homeowners are parents of young people who are struggling with high rents and insecure tenancies. The perception that Michael Gove was trying to do the right thing, but was thwarted by pro-landlord Tory MPs, must be damaging to the Conservative Party.