How Patel might lose her job over bullying allegations

Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, has called for Priti Patel to leave the cabinet while allegations of bullying are investigated. That is what the opposition might be expected to call for, but how likely is it that the home secretary will lose her job?

It would seem to be the intention of her former top civil servant, Sir Philip Rutnam, to make sure he takes her out with him. In his resignation statement last week he said he had rejected the financial settlement offered by the government – the implication being that he refused to go quietly and intended to take the matter to court.

Labour has latched on to the inquiry announced by Michael Gove, the cabinet office minister, on Monday as a reason to call for Patel to step down – with Abbott adding that the latest allegation should also be taken into account. This was a reference to the report by the BBC that an aide to Patel when she was an employment minister received a £25,000 payout in 2015 after allegedly being bullied.

But the real danger to Patel’s hold on office is Sir Philip’s determination to sue the government for wrongful constructive dismissal. If he won’t settle out of court – or, rather, out of employment tribunal – the danger is that new information will come to light.

Although Sir Philip’s criticism of Patel was stinging, occasional shouting, swearing and unreasonable requests may not be enough to force Boris Johnson to sack her. But the power of a tribunal to call witnesses and to order the disclosure of documents is dangerous to her.

As a senior civil servant recently explained to me, court cases often induce “absolute panic” in Whitehall, because it can be hard to control what becomes public, and it is often a clumsy attempt to cover up the original transgression, or something unrelated to it, that eventually forces the minister out of office.

Patel has the luxury of time, because an employment tribunal is not quick, but she is not safe yet.