What do the British public think of the monarchy?

The Queen's funeral is dominating the news, with hundreds of thousands of people queuing to pay their respects.

But what do the British public think of the monarchy? We can delve into the polls to find out.

The headline figure is that as of May 2022, Ipsos MORI found that in a straight referendum between a republic and a monarchy, 22 per cent of people would vote for a republic and 68 per cent a monarchy.

This is clearly a large margin in favour of a monarchy – but there is more context.

These figures should not be overstated: the level of support for the monarchy is broadly comparable to support for nationalising water companies (which Survation put at 69 per cent to 19 per cent in the latest August 2022 poll) or energy companies (66 per cent to 22 per cent, according to the same survey).

And Ipsos MORI has asked the same question about how people would vote in a referendum on the republic as far back as 1993. It turns out that 22 per cent is the highest figure in favour of an elected head of state since the question was asked.

68 per cent is also the second lowest level of support for the monarchy – the lowest was when the question was asked in 2021 and 60 per cent said so.

As recently as 2016, support was 76 per cent, and as recently as November 2012, it was 79 per cent.

So while things look good for the institution that King Charles III will head, its support is not universal, and things are not necessarily moving in the right direction for him – though it could take a long time for anything to change.

The waning support for a monarchy appears to be driven by three groups who are increasingly anti-monarchy: young people, Scots, and people who belong to ethnic minorities.

According to a separate May 2022 poll by FocalData, support for the monarchy among 18- to 24-year-olds has fallen to 40 per cent, Scots 45 per cent, and people from an ethnic minority 37 per cent.

The results have been replicated in other surveys. According to the survey by YouGov, 41 per cent of those aged 18-24 thought there should now be an elected head of state compared to 31 per cent who wanted to stick with a king or queen.

Some republicans have previously suggested that Queen Elizabeth's personal popularity is keeping the ratings for the monarchy artificially high.

This may be the case, but it certainly won't be the whole story. One finding by YouGov illustrates this well: attitudes to King Charles have already shifted substantially.

Asked in the wake of the Queen's death how they anticipate Charles III will fare on the throne, 63 per cent of the public said they think he will do a good job as King, with only 15 per cent thinking he will do a bad one.

This poll was a marked improvement on the same question asked earlier this year, when people were split 32 per cent to 32 per cent on whether or not the then-Prince Charles would do a good job.

So attitudes are in flux, and any assessment of which direction public opinion is moving in should keep an eye on what happens after the Queen has been buried.