Was Brexit the root cause of the arrival of Indian Covid variant?

To the already long list of harmful impacts of Brexit on the UK, it appears that we may have to add the arrival of the Indian coronavirus variant in the UK.

Although the link may initially seem far-fetched, there’s a roundabout way in which withdrawal from the European Union may be said to have helped usher the B1.617.2 variant into Britain.

The roots of the issue lie in trade, and in Boris Johnson’s desperate need to find a substitute for the lost EU exports sacrificed on the altar of Brexit.

Despite the prime minister’s zero-tariff Trade and Cooperation Agreement with Brussels, Brexit has created a host of non-tariff barriers to cross-Channel commerce in the shape of extra bureaucracy, paperwork and charges.

Office for National Statistics figures last week showed UK exports to the EU in the first three months of 2021 were down by 29 per cent (£13bn) compared to the same period in 2019. Exports to the rest of the world were down by 7 per cent over the same period, indicating that the slump in trade with Europe was almost certainly due to Brexit.

The government has always accepted that there would be disruption to EU trade following the transition out of the single market and customs union, but the prime minister has breezily insisted that this would be more than offset by “global Britain” striking new deals around the world.

A year ago, just as the coronavirus pandemic was getting going, he declared himself ready for a “great multidimensional game of chess” simultaneously negotiating deals with countries from the US to Australia, New Zealand and India.

In the event, while international trade secretary Liz Truss has sealed 67 “rollover” deals preserving the arrangements the UK enjoyed as a member of the EU, only Japan has concluded an agreement with some additional benefits for British businesses – and that is expected to add only 0.07 per cent to GDP.

While a deal with Australia is thought to be in the offing and the UK is hoping to join the CPTPP trans-Pacific trade partnership, hopes of an agreement with the US faded with Joe Biden’s election and any prospect of a pact with China looks far away, given fast-escalating tensions with Beijing.

That leaves India as the biggest potential partner for a post-Brexit trade deal that would go some way to replacing lost European business.

And Mr Johnson was keen to seize the opportunity as soon as possible.

After Covid-19 put an end to any plans for international travel in 2020, the PM put India top of his list for a visit this year to drum up business and pave the way for inking a deal to boost bilateral trade.

Previous efforts to strike an agreement with the south Asian giant have always foundered on Delhi’s demand for more visas for its huge cadre of young students and professionals.

But Mr Johnson has signalled his readiness to give ground on the issue, with repeated declarations that EU exit would allow the UK to admit the “brightest and best” from around the world, rather than giving precedence to those from the 27 EU states.

He was set to travel to India in the last week of January to be premier Narendra Modi’s chief guest at Republic Day festivities and conduct a high-profile tour, with trade links top of the agenda for his first overseas bilateral visit as prime minister.

That journey had to be cancelled as the UK went into its third lockdown with Covid cases soaring.

But it was rescheduled for 26 April, with both sides hopeful they would be emerging from the pandemic by that point.

New variants put paid to that, with the three-day visit first slimmed down and then cancelled altogether on 19 April as India rapidly became the world’s worst virus hotspot.

Instead, Johnson and Modi had a video call on 4 May, in which the UK agreed more visas in return for help from India in returning overstayers, and the pair signed up to a “2030 roadmap” to build commercial, defence and scientific links over the coming decade.

However, two weeks before the cancellation, neighbouring Pakistan and Bangladesh were subjected to tighter restrictions on travel to the UK, while India was overlooked despite having substantially higher infection rates.

Mandatory hotel quarantine for arrivals from India under England’s “red list” rule was announced a few hours after Mr Johnson called off his trip and was not implemented until 23 April, by which time B1.617.2 – which had not yet been identified as a variant of concern – had arrived in the UK.

Now Mr Johnson’s critics are asking whether he kept India off the red list for so long in order to avoid being forced to call off his own trip. And whether his determination to make the journey to Delhi was down to his desperation to mitigate the damage from Brexit.

Downing Street, of course, says this is not the case. But if the Indian variant kicks off a new wave of infection in the UK, it’s a question that Mr Johnson will continue to be asked.