The pro-EU parties’ failure to agree a joint by-election candidate could be a sign of things to come

Pro-EU parties including the Liberal Democrats, Green Party and Change UK had hoped to unite to form an alliance for next month’s by-election in Peterborough, knowing that they would split the Remain vote if they all put up candidates.

The attempt failed, though, when the candidate they had agreed to back, young pro-referendum campaigner Femi Oluwole, pulled out at the last minute.

Change UK blamed the fiasco on senior Labour-supporting figures in the People’s Vote campaign, suggesting they had put pressure on Mr Oluwole to withdraw or risk costing Labour votes.

For his part, Mr Oluwole told ITV he had pulled out because he was concerned that the pro-EU alliance would hurt Labour votes and boost Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. Asked if he had been put under pressure by senior People’s Vote figures, he said “not really”.

Either way, the outcome is clearly a blow for the smaller parties and a win for Labour.

Jeremy Corbyn’s party has denied scuppering the proposed Remain alliance, which seems reasonable given it was not part of discussions with the smaller parties and was always certain to put forward its own candidate. The Labour figures being blamed by Change UK include former senior advisers to Labour leaders but they do not currently work for the party.

That said, Mr Corbyn and his team will undoubtedly be quietly pleased that attempts by the other parties to join forces have fallen short.

The saga could have an impact on the Peterborough by-election, which is likely to come down to a straight two-way race between Labour and the Conservatives. Labour won the seat by just 600 votes in 2017, and the party will be relieved at the absence of a united pro-EU force that could attract some of its Remain voters. Labour’s chances of retaining the seat are further boosted by the fact that the Conservatives are likely to lose votes to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.

But the real lesson of the Remain parties’ failure to put forward a joint candidate in Peterborough is what it means for the national picture. More specifically, it does not bode well for the prospects of pro-EU parties forming a wider electoral pact.

If they are to gain parliamentary seats the smaller parties will probably need to work together to avoid splitting the pro-EU vote. Their failure to put up a joint candidate in Peterborough does not suggest that such an agreement on a national scale will be easy to negotiate.

Change UK had initially rejected offers to work together nationally, but is likely to soften its stance after local election results that saw the Liberal Democrats and Green Party increase their support. Those parties insist they will continue to cooperate if it will help secure another Brexit referendum, but the outcome of the talks in relation to Peterborough makes clear they will need to significantly up their game if they are to pose a real threat to the bigger parties.