How sleaze is depleting the Tory ranks one by-election at a time

The last few years have been a strange case of famine and feast for the political classes. Very unusually, there were no parliamentary by-elections for Westminster between August 2019 and May 2021, but in the period since, 17 have been conducted, not including the two that will be held on Thursday. The current position of two more MPs, one suspended from the house and another awaiting a judgement, means that two more might well be on the way.

Some of the results have been spectacular – and one, a narrow win for the Tories in Uxbridge and West Ruislip, prompted a significant shift in the government’s environmental policies. With a general election due to take place probably within about a year, the excitement is almost too much to bear.

What’s the latest?

The Conservative MP for Wellingborough, Peter Bone, is facing suspension from the House of Commons following an investigation into misconduct by one of parliament’s regulators. The independent Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards upheld five allegations of bullying and one of sexual misconduct.

Bone’s appeal was dismissed by an independent panel, which determined that Bone should be suspended for six weeks. The Commons will decide whether to endorse the recommendation, and this is expected to be a formality. The suspension itself won’t trigger a by-election, but given its length, a recall petition will have to be opened, meaning the end of the line for Bone.

For a recall petition to be effective, 10 per cent of eligible registered voters need to sign the petition – in this case, some 8,077 people. If the 10 per cent threshold is reached, the petition officer informs the speaker of the House of Commons. On the giving of that notice, the seat becomes vacant, and a by-election is then required to be held.

Bone is permitted by law to stand as a candidate, but probably wouldn’t be the official Conservative candidate. The timing of the by-election, by convention, would be up to the Tories, though it must take place within a reasonable timeframe.

It would take time, though. The Commons hasn’t yet reconvened, and a recall petition takes six weeks to complete. Then the government would need to move a writ, and after that allow about a month for a campaign. So the Wellingborough by-election, if it transpires, might be held early in the new year. It’s a bit too far away from the next general election for the government to get away with postponing it until it’s overtaken by the bigger contest.

Why are we having all these by-elections?

For a wide variety of reasons, but mostly it’s what might be broadly categorised as “sleaze”, and predominantly Tory sleaze at that. Bone, for example, was found to have been guilty of “a serious case of misconduct ... The bullying involved violence, shouting and swearing, mocking, belittling and humiliating behaviour, and ostracism ... This wilful pattern of bullying also included an unwanted incident of sexual misconduct, when the complainant was trapped in a room with the respondent in a hotel in Madrid ... This was a deliberate and conscious abuse of power using a sexual mechanism: indecent exposure.”

Nine of the 17 by-elections held so far during this parliament have been down to misbehaviour and rule-breaking, and in all but two of those, by Conservatives (one each for Labour and the SNP). By comparison, four were precipitated by deaths.

Will the Tories lose Wellingborough, too?

It’s a way off, but the omens aren’t good. Bone’s majority of 18,540, or 35.7 per cent of the vote, ought to be impregnable. Bone is also something of a local “character” and makes frequent reference to his East Midlands constituency. However, the circumstances of his suspension are less endearing, and with Labour scoring such large swings in recent months, of 20 per cent or more, Wellingborough most be considered vulnerable, with no obvious special circumstances in the Tories’ favour.

The seat has traditionally been something of a bellwether, and was last held by Labour between 1997 and 2005.

Anywhere else?

Well, they could lose two this Thursday, in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, though there’s gossip they might hold the pair. In Mid Beds, voluntarily vacated by Nadine Dorries after she was “denied” a peerage, the opposition vote is split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, which might help the Conservatives survive on a much-reduced share of the vote. Labour’s proposed relaxation of planning rules might also count against them; and the Lib Dems seem to be making some exaggerated claims about their local strength.

In Tamworth, it is a straight fight between Labour and the Tories, and the obstacle to a Labour win is the sheer size of the Tory majority achieved by Chris Pincher. Pincher is out on sleaze allegations, though (“Pincher by name, pincher by nature”), which never helps. Labour needs to demolish a majority of 19,634 (42.6 per cent) here, in the West Midlands, a region that hasn’t been that receptive to their message in recent years.

Forgotten one?

Ah, yes, Blackpool South. The Conservative incumbent, Scott Benton, could soon be handed a lengthy suspension by the parliamentary standards commissioner, this time for undeclared lobbying activities. Labour only has to breathe on this for it to fall to them – a mere 5.7 per cent swing to a win in a coastal seat that remains “left behind” despite all the promises. That makes a round 20 by-elections for this parliament.