Tories should fear the impact of this week’s miserly pension rise

To understand the political damage that this week’s miserly 3.1 per cent rise in pensions can do, it is only necessary to remind ourselves about electoral demographics. Britain’s pensioners gave Boris Johnson his majority in parliament in 2019, and what they give, they can take away. Indeed, at the council and devolved parliament elections on 6 May, there is every chance that they will make their wrath felt.

The importance of the grey vote to the Conservatives is stark. In 2019, some 67 per cent of the over-70s voted Conservative, and only 14 per cent for Corbyn’s Labour. By contrast, 56 per cent of the 18-24-year-olds voted Labour, and a remarkably low 21 per cent went for Johnson.

What should be happening this week, under a manifesto commitment, is an increase under the so-called “triple lock” that matches whichever is largest out of wage rises, price increases as they were running last autumn, or a minimum of 2.5 per cent. That would have meant a rise of some 8 per cent, matching extraordinary recent rapid wage growth – about £14 or so. But the triple lock was turned into a double lock when the Treasury saw this coming, and so the rise will instead match the consumer price index last year, at 3.1 per cent. This looks even worse considering inflation is now at 5.5 per cent and look set to approach 10 per cent.

Not all pensioners are poor by any means, but there is such a thing still as fuel poverty, and, at a time of life when they are least able to do much about their financial situation, many are facing a bleak immediate future. Price increases are everywhere, but especially in food and fuel, while NHS waiting lists are lengthening. Income from savings remains very low. For those still able to work, they will now be liable for national insurance for the first time. If the privatisation of Channel 4 goes awry, they could even lose Countdown. There is much for the older generation to grumble about.

Ministers say that the triple lock will be restored next year, at which point pensioners should be in line for a larger increase to catch up with this year’s rising cost of living – something like a chunky 8 per cent increase. But there will be a severe squeeze in living standards in the meantime. Even if ministers do restore the triple lock, there’s considerable doubt whether it will form part of the Tory party’s next general election manifesto. In a few weeks, Britain’s pensioners will no doubt take the opportunity to chastise the government when they turn out to vote.