Why has Nigel Farage refused to stand in the Peterborough by-election?

On the day of the Brexit Party’s launch last month, it seemed likely to win the largest share of the vote in the European elections.

Long before then, there had been speculation that, if there were a by-election in Peterborough, Nigel Farage might stand as a candidate – with a good chance of winning.

It was nine months ago that he told The Daily Telegraph: “The idea that I’m going to stand in Peterborough is utter rubbish.” But that was before Fiona Onasanya, the city’s Labour MP, had even begun her trial.

I assumed he would change his mind after she was found guilty of perverting the course of justice over a speeding offence. A few days ago he confirmed that the Brexit Party would stand a candidate if the recall petition against Onasanya were successful.

I thought he would announce yesterday that this candidate would be him, when the recall petition dismissed Onasanya as the MP and created a vacancy in the constituency.

Instead, he said he wouldn’t stand. He told The Sun: “Impossible – I have a national campaign to run.”

This is puzzling. The Brexit Party has been a stunning success in the three weeks since its formal launch on 12 April (although the party was actually founded in January and registered with the Electoral Commission a month later). In a YouGov poll published today it is already on 30 per cent of the national vote for the European parliament elections, nine points clear of Labour, with the Conservatives left for dust.

Peterborough is ideal territory for an insurgent pro-Brexit challenge. The constituency voted 61 per cent Leave in the referendum, according to Chris Hanretty’s estimate. It is a Conservative-Labour marginal, which Labour won narrowly last time. The Conservatives don’t stand a chance, engulfed by a wave of fury against the government for its failure to take Britain out of the EU.

But Labour is vulnerable too, with its face-both-ways policy on Brexit confirmed by its ruling national executive this week. The party knows it. Nick Brown, Labour’s chief whip, moved the writ for the by-election in the House of Commons today – in order to hold the contest as quickly as possible, presumably in the vain hope of denying the Brexit Party time to organise and gain momentum.

So, the by-election will be held on 6 June. But Farage will not be a candidate. He will have been re-elected as an MEP for the South East England region (the bit outside London). The Brexit Party has not yet said who will contest the seat, so perhaps the hunt is on for someone well known who can maximise the party’s chances. But there is no one better qualified to carry the party’s banner than Farage himself.

He is – whatever you think of his politics – a brilliant advocate of the anti-EU cause. And the prize is great. Imagine him in the House of Commons. He would immediately become the voice in the chamber for the millions of people who feel that Brexit has been betrayed.

With little chance of Britain leaving the EU, he may dominate the next three years in any event – to the next election and beyond. But how much greater would that domination be with a platform in Westminster.

Andrew Adonis, the Labour candidate in the South West region, has said for a long time that Farage is the real leader of the Conservative Party. With a seat in parliament, that could even come true.

So why has Farage ducked the challenge? It is not really that he is too busy, as he claimed to The Sun. True, he cannot be an MEP and an MP at the same time, but would he not rather be an MP? Perhaps he doesn’t think the Brexit Party can win. Perhaps, having tried seven times to be elected as an MP, he dare not risk another failure.

Is he therefore just a coward?