Can the SNP ever recover from the fall of Nicola Sturgeon?

Nicola Sturgeon’s appearance at the UK Covid-19 Inquiry is a reminder both of how central a figure she was, not just during the pandemic but at the top of Scottish and national elections for about two decades – and how far she has since fallen from grace. It is almost a year now since she announced her unexpected decision to step down as SNP leader and Scottish first minister. Since then, her reputation and the standing of her party, both then looking unassailable, have undergone a precipitate collapse. The consequences for Scotland and the UK will be far-reaching…

It certainly wasn’t an easy time for her. She did break down at one point, an uncharacteristic show of emotion, and it’s fair to say that the KC’s rather gentle style of questioning was nonetheless both persistent and revealing. During the proceedings, Sturgeon was made to concede that she did use personal channels of digital communication for non-trivial and policy-related purposes, contrary to the impression she had previously given. She also had to, in effect, apologise for deleting them when she’d said they would be made available to the inquiry. Awkward queries about the working of the small “Gold Command” group that made key decisions on the pandemic were also made of her, and Sturgeon was confronted with documentary evidence indicating she wished to politicise the pandemic in the continuing campaign for independence.

It’s important to remember that the inquiry is not a criminal trial, even though it’s presided over by a judge and is populated by many lawyers. The findings and recommendations of the inquiry will have consequences, for all who submit evidence and submit to cross-examination of it, but probably not charges. That said, how all these public figures perform is being watched and scrutinised carefully now, and if Sturgeon, for example, is criticised by the chair, Lady Hallett, then she will have to deal with that.

Rather more serious for Sturgeon, her husband (Peter Murrell, former chief executive of the SNP) and the party more widely are the continuing investigations into wrongdoing and potential corruption being carried out by the police under Operation Broadreach. This has already seen senior SNP figures arrested for questioning and arrest. Court proceedings may follow. It could hardly be more embarrassing for a politician and a party that once made integrity such a central part of their appeal.

This remains an open question. Not long before she quit, Sturgeon told Laura Kuenssberg in a TV interview that she had “plenty in the tank” and wasn’t about to follow the example of Jacinda Adern in New Zealand and quit because she was tired. Weeks later, however, in February 2023, Sturgeon did make her shock resignation statement. At that point, she was showered with praise for her example of strong leadership, and there was talk of her taking a top job at the United Nations. But then came puzzling revelations about money and camper vans and the police searching Sturgeon’s home. Some say she jumped because she knew what was coming…

Yes. For those outside Scotland, it’s hard to overstate just how central Sturgeon became to the SNP and how much she dominated Scottish politics for more than a decade. She emerged as a protege of Alex Salmond and succeeded him after the defeat of the independence campaign in 2014, having already risen to be a senior minister and key lieutenant of his. She quickly escaped his shadow and secured a series of stunning electoral successes, including a near-clean sweep of Scottish seats in the 2015 and subsequent elections, removing scores of complacent Scottish Labour MPs and securing majorities or near-majorities in Holyrood, way ahead of the SNP’s rivals. “Peak Sturgeon” was reached during the Covid pandemic, when her apparent professionalism, transparency and grip on detail during public appearances struck a marked and depressing contrast to the bumbling mess that was Boris Johnson.

Salmond and Sturgeon were titanic figures in Scottish politics for the last two decades, albeit in both senses of the term. Now both are discredited, to put it mildly, and Salmond has abandoned the SNP and started his own party, Alba (which takes a pointlessly harder line on campaigning for independence).

Just as Salmond and Sturgeon’s respective political gifts were responsible for the rise of the SNP, so now has their fall also dragged down the Scottish National Party and, to a lesser degree, the cause of independence with them.

Meanwhile, Humza Yousaf, Sturgeon’s favoured successor, has cut a mostly unimpressive figure, and a series of blunders by her and Yousaf, such as a botched contract for ferries to the Scottish islands, has left the SNP looking incompetent and rudderless, with “indyref2” as far away as ever. Last year’s bitter leadership contest also made the party look divided. The net result is that the SNP no longer looks like the natural party of government even in devolved Scotland, let alone fit to rule an independent sovereign state faced with negotiating its terms of entry to the EU, among other challenges.

Losing Westminster seats to Labour in this year’s general election followed by a loss of power in Edinburgh 2026 are the looming possibilities, if not probabilities. The SNP seems set to lose its third-party status in the Commons, and the influence and authority that comes with such a large bloc of MPs as it presently controls. Labour’s parliamentary majority will be substantially boosted by its recovery in Scotland, at the expense of the SNP and, to a smaller extent, the Tories.

However, even now, more than a third of Scots would back the SNP in elections, and around half would vote to break out of the UK. There is no realistic chance that any other group will supplant the SNP as one of the two major parties in Scotland, and it is not going to disappear. After such a long period in power – since 2017 and counting – the usual sort of maladies that set in after such a long time in office and with such little political opposition are bound to set in, just as they are with the Tories in Westminster.

In the short run, none. In the medium to long term, there are plenty of reasons to be cheerful. It has residual support in the electorate that will ensure its continued existence, and it has a cause that many feel passionate about and transcends personalities and party politics. As with all political parties, it has the potential for recovery, and impressive figures such as Stephen Flynn, SNP leader in the Commons, and Kate Forbes, former finance secretary and ex-leadership challenger. Both are articulate, energetic representatives of a younger generation that can renew the party and reassert its claim for power and national freedom. So the SNP is still a force in a way it never was before devolution and the principal alternative to Labour. It’ll be back, and one day Sturgeon may be rehabilitated to become a respected elder. Not just now, mind.