Why Sunak will dread the by-election headache forced by Nadine Dorries

With the Taylor Swift concert, SoulCycle classes and beach walks in California now distant holiday memories, Rishi Sunak is spending the end of his summer thinking about how to reset his premiership in the hope he can run the country for a while longer.

The prime minister and his team have started writing the October conference speech, planned more combative attacks on Labour, and begun preparing a mini-reshuffle ahead of a push taking them into a long, unofficial election campaign of 2024.

Nadine Dorries has spent her summer plotting how best to damage Sunak. The ardent Boris Johnson supporter managed to hold off from resigning her seat before the recess, timing her exit for the crucial “reset” period in the weeks ahead. The Mid Bedfordshire by-election vote is expected soon after the party conference in the first week of October.

One senior Tory figure said the mischief-making was all about maximising sales of her upcoming book on the “political assassination” of Boris. “It was designed to coincide with the release in September – it’ll help promote her book to be causing trouble during conference,” they said.

Mr Sunak now faces the awkward task of trying to revitalise his government when so much attention will again be focused on the party’s unpopularity.

The PM has to get the public listening again to his arguments on the economy and various culture war battles – but political coverage over the next couple of months looks set to be dominated by anger against Dorries, poll numbers and Tory psychodrama.

Tory peer and elections guru Lord Hayward said Sunak will be able to ignore the soon-to-be ex-MP easily enough – but he warned that the by-election she has created will be a major headache.

“The criticism for Nadine will be no bad thing for Rishi,” he told The Independent. “It makes it seem more normal if he is being attacked by someone so unpopular – the last few weeks have hardened opinion against her. But the by-election will be a distraction. It has the potential to cause problems.”

The picture is not entirely bleak for the Tories. Buoyed by the unexpected victory in Uxbridge over London mayor Sadiq Khan’s Ulez expansion, the party will be desperately hunting for another single issue that can galvanise the party’s disenchanted base.

Former No 10 chief of staff Gavin Barwell said at the weekend that Tory chances in Mid Bedfordshire are “not great”, adding: “To learn the lesson from Uxbridge, can they find a strong local issue?”

Lord Hayward thinks he spies a potentially useful dividing line when it comes to housing and planning issues in Dorries’s largely rural seat in the “blue wall” south, after Labour pledged to boost development.

“Planning issues are not such a problem as they were during the Chesham and Amersham by-election,” said the elections expert. “Labour’s position on the green belt could put doubts in people’s minds.”

He added: “You also have the potential for a split opposition vote, because Keir Starmer’s determination to prove he can appeal to all parts of the country has surprised the Lib Dems.”

Is Labour entitled to push for the seat? The party finished second in Mid Bedfordshire in 2019, some 24,000 votes behind the Tories – but nearly 6,000 votes ahead of the Lib Dems.

But figures don’t necessarily show which parties have the highest or lowest vote ceiling this time around. Some have pointed out that the leafy constituency resembles North Shropshire, which the Lib Dems came from third to win at the end of 2021.

Compass, the centre-left group that advocates tactical voting, has urged Labour and Lib Dems to knock heads together and decide which party has the better chance of winning. But there appears little chance of the desired non-aggression pact.

Sunak’s best hope may come from a fairly even divide in opposition votes. Victory in Dorries’s old seat, however tight the margin, would offer a major morale boost to demoralised Conservatives with seats in the blue wall. Can Sunak cling on at No 10 in the way some Tory MPs hope to cling on to their seats?

By-election wins can create their own momentum. Dorries has called Sunak “one of our biggest losers”. But if the home county constituency can be held, the PM may end up thanking her for giving him the chance to reset the narrative and present himself as a winner.