What do the French regional election results mean for Macron?

What does France want? Judging from the results of the first round of the regional elections, the answer would appear to be (to use a British phrase); “None of the above”. Two out of three of those eligible to vote didn’t bother to do so, and even for those who did venture out, the results were far from conclusive, at least for the front runners for next spring’s presidential contest. As things stand, Emmanuel Macron is still on course to win his second term, despite plenty of misgivings about him and a general sense of malaise in the land. But things are as volatile as ever, and Marine Le Pen has certainly not gone away.

For the president, the past five years have demonstrated three things. First, he has proved that you can build a party, or “movement” as he likes to style his La République En Marche (LREM) grouping, from scratch, and take power on the back of it. Less welcome, the latest elections confirm that LREM is little more than a Macron fan club that put down few roots in French political culture, scoring just 11 per cent or so of the poll (though that will improve when MLEM goes into the next round of voting next Sunday, with tiny parties eliminated).

Third, President Macron has shown that you can be a divisive, even hated figure in some quarters, but still retain a surprisingly robust level of public backing as an incumbent – more like 40 to 50 per cent in the polls, a multiple of the derisory support his party currently attracts. Thus, while the results are certainly disappointing for any ambition the president might have had to realign French politics, for the moment that seems not to affect his prospects of hanging on in the Élysée Palace. That is, in part, due to the pandemic incumbency effect observed in elections across the world, but also to the paucity of the personalities competing for power around him.

Of those, the most formidable remains Marine Le Pen, who also experienced some disappointments on the night for her party, Rassemblement National (National Rally), formerly the Front National, and a neo-fascistic group whatever the label. The waves of anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim, anti-EU and anti-establishment feelings that have kept her at the brink of power for years are still lashing the political scene, but they seem to be very gradually subsidising. Brexit – not an obvious success story for anyone – has probably taken the edge off the power of her anti-Brussels stance, while President Macron’s hard line on Islamism and extremism has blunted her attacks on him. The Covid-19 pandemic has also tended to distract French voters from more traditional grievances. For a radical party such as Le Pen’s, the crucial thing is to maintain a sense of momentum, and that has been lost.

The winners, if that’s not too strong a term, were the traditional right, now reorganised as Les Républicains, who won about 30 per cent of the poll. Their problem seems to be the mirror image of Emmanuel Macron’s – a relatively strong network of local organisations, but, if anything, too many potential leaders. Xavier Bertrand and Valerie Pecresse, two possible front-runners who could represent the party in next year’s presidential election, have left Les Republicains, though either could, and may yet, give President Macron a run for his money. So, too, would a man who is fairly familiar to the British, Michel Barnier, who, we may be sure, wouldn’t be too modest to allow his name to go forward. He would add a certain frisson to Anglo-French summits. The left, meanwhile, looks to be a continuing irrelevance, as is the case across much of Western Europe, a striking long-term trend that shows little sign of abating.

For President Macron, oddly, the best outcome for him in the presidential election would be for Marine Le Pen to do well enough to contest the final round of the presidential election next year, with him beating her just as he did in 2017 – though the risk is that such well-laid plans can go badly awry, and in that case with disastrous consequences. Should Rassemblement National continue to lose ground to Les Republicains, and propel Michel Barnier to become the main challenger to Macron, there is a much stronger chance that he would lose, and join the lengthening list of recent one-term French presidents. Democracy in France, though, would survive in a way it would not were Ms Le Pen to win. Apathetic French voters have much to lose.