What are the Tories’ chances of winning the London mayoral election?

Local and mayoral elections on 2 May, combined with yet another parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South, will provide the best possible picture of the standing of the parties – in most of England and Wales, at least.

Millions of real votes in ballot boxes will either confirm or confound the opinion polls. It will be another important test of Rishi Sunak’s leadership; there is speculation that a truly disastrous result for his party might trigger a vote of confidence in him, with the possible consequence that he’d call an immediate general election and take his case to the British people as early as June. Of the many discouraging results the Conservatives seem to be headed for, perhaps the worst of all will be in London. It is fair to say that, even in a generally difficult period for the Tories, London stands out as an object lesson in how not to do politics…

Polls put Tory mayoral candidate Susan Hall about 25 points behind Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan, who is seeking a third term (Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone won two terms each). She has had a mixed campaign, it’s fair to say, kicking off a launch event at which she struck comically bellicose poses next to a Second World War Spitfire. Not their greatest hour. Indeed, Hall was never really expected to be the Tory representative in the capital but scandals removed her slightly more plausible rivals. Hall, a hairdresser by trade and a member of the Greater London Assembly, was selected almost by default. A more ruthless Tory leadership might have found a way to replace her. For better or worse, they’re lumbered with a pound shop Liz Truss.

Overstatement and hyperbole are usually the keys to success in a propaganda war but the lurid picture of London painted by the Tories is so unrealistic that it has become a figure of fun. Anyone watching Conservative election videos might expect they will emerge from the Jubilee Line spewing blood from a gaping wound. Indeed, the last social media ad had to have a scene depicting passengers fleeing a New York subway station removed because it was so widely mocked. Londoners also know that Sadiq Khan did not “seize power” in the 2016 and 2021 mayoral contests but simply prevailed against mediocre candidates and misdirected campaigns. They also know that Khan is not controlled by Islamist terrorists. Slow learners, the Tories are repeating the same dog whistle mistakes.

Not since the Tories reformed the system for electing mayors a few years ago and made it first-past-the-post. A cynical move, the calculation was that generally the left-progressive vote in the bigger cities would be split between Labour, Greens and Liberal Democrats, and second preferences usually transferred between them when they didn’t gain an absolute majority in the first count of the ballots, thus boosting their chances, invariably helping Labour. By removing that tactical advantage, it was thought, a right/centre-right candidate could squeeze through the middle in a hotly-contested fight.

However, so dismal has the Tory campaign been that Khan is just about ready to win an absolute majority on first preferences anyway, while Reform UK is tempting a few dissident Tories away and eroding Hall’s support (albeit there is not much hard-right support in Europhile and diverse London).

As Napoleon reputedly said, victory has many parents but defeat is always an orphan. Hall started off by going in hard on the Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) scheme, which is unpopular in outer London boroughs, and Khan’s record on crime. She has recently softened, to portray herself as a populist oracle listening to Londoners and giving them what they want. But in a city of about six million voters, what they want is pretty wide-ranging.

Ironically, the badly-received crime scare horror video is blamed by the Hall team on Conservative head office; this has a ring of truth, given that a national Tory campaign strategy is to highlight problems in areas where Labour has been in charge, such as Wales and Birmingham.

It is now too late to change the candidate because nominations have closed. Their only hope is to muddle through and hope that apathy, anger at Ulez, or a late Green Party surge are enough to collapse the Labour vote and hand city hall to Susan Hall.

During the Uxbridge by-election in July 2023, the Tories successfully campaigned hard on the imminent extension of the Ulez to outer London boroughs, which encountered greater opposition than the original city centre scheme because voters feared they would be forced to scrap their vehicles.

It is still unpopular and feared, but since implementation many Londoners have discovered they are unaffected after all. Many 20-year-old cars with petrol engines are Ulez exempt, for example. Of course, they may judge that Khan will tighten the rules and increase the charges and fines, although he has ruled out making changes while he’s mayor. The possibility of Labour introducing pay-per-mile also seems remote, given the hostility to the idea and its mostly regressive nature.

Boris Johnson showed how a lively, personality-based and well-targeted campaign can overcome the demographic obstacles to victory. He defied expectations to win the 2008 election against the supposedly unbeatable Ken Livingstone, and then saw him off again in 2012 when the Tories in government were highly unpopular. Khan’s record isn’t as bad as the Tories are making out, but he is eminently beatable given that he won narrowly in 2021 (by about 5 per cent on first preferences). A well-known, appealing candidate and a slick campaign might have posed a bigger threat to Khan on 2 May, especially given the city’s housing crisis and a mounting financial squeeze at Transport for London. As it stands, Hall’s likely humiliation will be more like an augury of a near-total wipeout of Tory MPs across London.