A dramatic decline in local bus routes – and why it matters at the next election

The number of local bus routes in England has halved since 2011, according to new figures researched by the Labour Party. Louise Haigh, Labour’s shadow transport secretary, has squarely blamed the government for the dispiriting trend: “The staggering decline in local bus services under this government is nothing short of vandalism against our communities. Millions of people rely on these essential services, but they are being left without a voice as routes are cut back year after year. Labour’s plans will put passengers first by allowing communities to take back control over their bus services.”

Labour claims that there were 8,781 routes in operation during the year to the end of March, compared with 17,394 in 2010-11. The figures, derived from annual reports by the independent Traffic Commissioners, suggest more than 2,000 routes have been cut since 2021-22 alone.

The West Midlands has been the hardest-hit region for lost bus routes since 2011, with more than two-thirds cut. Labour promises to give all local transport authorities more powers to choose routes and reduce fares.

Is it the government’s fault?

Yes and no. One main cause of the rationalisation of bus routes, which is continuing apace, particularly in rural areas, is falling passenger numbers and journeys, and these took a hammering during the pandemic, for obvious reasons. Social changes that were underway before the onset of Covid, such as the trend to flexible working and shopping online, accelerated greatly during the emergency. The bus trade suffered as a result, and while things have recovered in terms of bus usage, Labour is right to say that the number of routes has been in continuous fall – roughly halving since the Conservatives came to power in 2010.

Why the decline in bus routes?

Long-term trends and lack of funds to subsidise services, especially in rural areas. By far the most important historical factor is obviously the arrival of reliable cheap cars and the huge expansion in passenger vehicle ownership since the end of the Second World War. Bus usage peaked in fact in about 1950, and by the early 1970s was already worrying local authorities – when they enjoyed statutory local monopolies, and the local service was a matter of great municipal pride. Privatisation and liberalisation (outside Greater London) in 1984 is often cited as a contributory factor, but while it caused a certain amount of chaos, the slow decline continued as it has under local council control.

By the 2000s things had stabilised, helped by steady economic growth and the formation of larger private national bus groups, better able to invest. One definite casualty of the free-market reforms was the bus manufacturing sector, which used to rely on a steady stream of large orders from local transport authorities. The new private groups tended to run older fleets, and only later came to find investment worthwhile. Many jobs were sadly lost at Leyland, Lancashire, Bathgate in Scotland, Park Royal in London and Lowestoft in Suffolk as a consequence. Only in the special circumstances of London has bus travel remained a fairly integral part of life for most, but even here, as with the London Underground, there’s been a permanent knock to the numbers thanks to Covid.

What does the government say?

On the record, they argue the decline had been overstated – pointing out that the number of route miles covered by services had fallen by less than 19 per cent; that they have implemented a new £2 fare cap, and in March 2021 they published the stunningly punned “Bus Back Better”.

In his foreword the then prime minister, Boris Johnson, bloviated on one of his pet passions: “I love buses, and I have never quite understood why so few governments before mine have felt the same way. A couple of years ago, I unintentionally broke the internet with the widely-mocked, but true, statement that one of my hobbies is making models of buses. As mayor of London, I was proud to evict from the capital that mobile roadblock, the bendy bus, and to replace it with a thousand sleek, green, street-gracing New Routemasters. Buses are the country’s favourite mode of public transport too – used for twice as many journeys as trains, from thousands more stopping-places across the country.”

Such boosterish nostalgia, however, hasn’t resulted in any significant improvements in bus provision, which may not come as a surprise. Even the Boris Bus (made in Northern Ireland) is no longer in production, having proved too costly to make and prone to fare dodging, funnily enough.

More charitably, the combination of Covid, Brexit and consequent economic stagnation have put enormous pressure on government, local authorities and indeed bus operators.

What are the politics of this?

Off the record, ministers fear that the decline in bus routes and wider erosion of the service will cost them votes in rural and semi-rural areas, and particularly in the so-called red wall seats, where the impression was given that there’d be investment and an end to neglect of their needs. Labour is seeking to show that they have got more commitment to, and better plans for public transport. Even for voters who rarely use buses, there is some nervousness about their community being “cut off” if a route is cancelled for good. Labour has spied an opportunity and don’t intend to “miss the bus”.

What could Labour do?

Back in the days of Jeremy Corbyn – like Johnson, a bus enthusiast – Labour made a high-profile commitment at the 2019 general election to spend £1.3bn a year to reverse cuts to bus routes. Now, though, the emphasis is less on funding and more on structural reforms that don’t involve spending more money: replace the multiple and competitive funding sources with a single, long-term funding pot; give all local transport authorities the power to take back control of bus services, extending the opportunity to franchise services to every community (currently only available to metro mayors); lower the legal hurdles to franchising; and lift the legal ban on municipal bus ownership.