Can Labour win rural votes at the next election?

Can Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party produce a kind of Heineken effect by refreshing parts of the electorate his predecessors could not reach: country folk? Shadow environment secretary Steve Reed is doing his best to brew something up; he told a Country Land and Business Association conference in London – a novel platform for a party spokesperson – that Labour under Starmer would “treat our rural communities with respect”. The implied criticism is that they have not done so since the 2000s. “We became too detached from the aspirations and concerns of our rural communities,” he said. “No more.”

As with so many sections of the electorate, Tory travails have opened up opportunities for opposition parties…

Does Labour need the countryside to win?

Probably not, given that most of Britain lives in urban and suburban constituencies; but there are many semi-rural communities and market towns where Labour could make progress. Many such areas have changed over time in the Opposition parties’ favour, with younger graduates and professional families moving in. The Tories have also alienated traditional support by failing to protect public services, support post-Brexit farming, keep rivers and beaches free of pollution, or have a coherent policy on house building and development. In some areas there is disquiet about what post-Brexit deals with places such as Australia and New Zealand will do to farm incomes. Rising fuel and energy costs have added to the disillusion.

If Labour wants to portray itself as a truly national governing party, it does at least need to speak to the voters in villages and hamlets. Some feel just as “left behind” as the seaside towns and housing estates.

How weak is Labour in rural areas?

Extremely. Out of 124 constituencies that could be classified as rural, Labour won only two at the last general election: Hemsworth and North Durham. This is fewer than the SNP and Plaid Cymru, let alone the Liberal Democrats. Poor representation and a weak base in the past has hampered attempts to rebuild, as did the primacy of the Liberal Democrats as challengers, especially in the south and southwest. A recent, smaller, challenge on local government has emerged from the Greens, for example in Suffolk.

What are the issues?

Labour could do well on public services, transport (buses and branch rail lines); river pollution, and closer links and easier access to European markets for produce, and for seasonal workers in agriculture and horticulture. Labour is offering farmers and landowners access to cheap, clean energy; fewer food imports, and a veterinary agreement with the EU.

What do the Tories say?

Conservatives accuse Labour of “hypocritical political opportunism”. More substantively, they could argue that urban interests will always outweigh the rural interest in Labour’s internal counsels; few in the leadership have much experience of rural life. Weaknesses for Labour in rural areas include, potentially: plans to relax planning rules for housing or commercial development (controversial despite constant demands for affordable rural homes); onshore wind farms and associated pylons and power lines; and fears about the cost and effectiveness of electric heat pumps to replace oil- and gas-based systems for heating often older, less well-insulated properties.

Can Labour win rural votes?

The good news for Labour is that some recent by-elections do suggest the party could make a few breakthroughs. Substantial, even record-breaking, swings and gains made in Mid Bedfordshire and in Selby and Ainsty respectively suggest Labour can at least mount a challenge, and that it’s not just Lib Dems that can grab such seats.

Labour is reportedly now targeting Bishop Auckland, Copeland, Workington, Truro and Falmouth, and Clwyd West at the next election. For the Tories, the English rural constituency is very much their last line of defence; if the “barn wall” seats go, the party ceases to exist.

Didn’t farmers vote for Brexit?

Some did, but by no means overwhelmingly; in fact, in 2016 the National Farmers’ Union said farmers’ interests were “best served by remaining in the European Union” – and the salience of Brexit as an issue has in any case declined. It is not as much of an asset for the Conservatives as it was in 2019, when Brexit frustration and fatigue dominated the campaign. Loss of seasonal labour and markets has led to a reappraisal of the success of leaving the EU.

What about fox hunting?

It’s something both sides of the debate care passionately about, but it isn’t a decisive election issue. Besides, it’s a myth that everyone who lives in the country supports country sports. In any case, it’s unlikely Labour will revisit the topic; as Blair found, passing laws on hunting with hounds took up huge amounts of parliamentary time for comparatively little reward.