Could the Gaza ceasefire row cost Labour the next election?

Although Labour had been remarkably united on the Israel-Hamas war, the intensifying conflict and some crucial votes in the House of Commons have revealed dissent and division, and to an unexpected degree. Jess Phillips was the highest-profile figure among 10 frontbenchers to quit or be sacked from their roles as Keir Starmer faced a sizeable rebellion over his refusal to back a ceasefire in Gaza. Altogether, 56 Labour MPs voted for an SNP amendment calling for a ceasefire.

Why has Keir Starmer decided to adopt this stance on the ceasefire?

First, he rejects calls for a ceasefire because he genuinely doesn’t believe it would be the right policy. Labour’s delicately constructed policy was laid out in the party’s motion (amendment) to the King’s Speech, and includes a call for longer humanitarian pauses and for Israel to obey international law.

Second, and in the same vein, Starmer wishes to appear to be a prime-minister-in-waiting rather than a leader of the opposition opposing for the sake of it: at this stage in the electoral cycle, there’s a premium on appearing statesmanlike.

Third, and again with the same agenda, Starmer wants to be seen as a national leader rather than a spokesperson for one or more interest groups. It’s all about Labour being a party of power rather than a party of protest.

Will it cost Labour the election?

No, but it can do some damage. Most obviously, it suggests that the Labour Party may not be as reformed, united and disciplined as Starmer makes out. It also, most grievously, raises once again (fairly or otherwise) the whole issue of antisemitism in the party, and the unwillingness of some to accept Israel’s right to exist. This is one of the tenets of the IHRA definition of antisemitism, and has proved controversial in some quarters, albeit much more within the membership than in the parliamentary Labour Party.

The divisions in Labour have helped to revive the wider Tory claim that the party hasn’t really changed since Jeremy Corbyn’s time as leader. Labour will no doubt spend an arguably disproportionate amount of time in bitter public dispute about a course of action – a ceasefire – that is unlikely to come about, and that Labour, still in opposition, cannot do much about.

Indeed, even if Labour were in power, there’s no necessary reason to believe that its decisions about whether to support this or that would have much impact on Hamas or the Israeli government. It also suggests that arguments about the Middle East could prove to be a constant distraction for Labour in the way that Europe has been for the Conservatives.

On balance, it is possible that Labour will lose support as a result of the split.

Will it affect the ‘Muslim vote’?

As for the Muslim community, it has to be said that it is not some homogenous bloc voting on one issue. Even if Labour support does slip in some seats, it doesn’t necessarily mean that these voters will switch to the Conservatives or anyone else, still less that they will desert Labour in sufficient numbers to put mostly safe seats in jeopardy.

The latest polling suggests that the great majority of support for Labour in 2019 has been retained, as well as significant gains being made among Muslims who voted Tory in 2019. The Labour lead among voters with a Muslim background is around 45 per cent.

What’s the wider trend in the polls?

Extremely disturbing for the Conservatives. The last few polls have the party on around 20 per cent support. This is the same dismal level that Liz Truss reached at the end of her short-lived administration. By contrast, Labour is anything from 17 to 30 per cent ahead of the Tories, which would easily be enough to see Starmer in No 10.

The splits on the Israel-Gaza war have had a negligible effect on the wider political scene. Indeed, Labour’s more nuanced approach may be closer to British public opinion than the Conservative stance – but the Middle East doesn’t drive many votes.

For the Tories, there are some grounds for optimism. Opinion polls one year before a general election can sometimes prove wide of the mark; governments generally pick up support as polling day approaches and choices sharpen. The economy is improving, and the cost of living crisis easing. Further, some of the relatively high support registered for Reform UK (hovering around 10 per cent) might well return to the Tories; and the Lib Dems remain becalmed.