Why has Labour lost so many members?

Labour has suffered a significant dip in its membership – in a short period of time. The fall coincides with pressure on the party’s leadership over its stance on the war in Gaza and a significant downgrading of its pledge to spend billions of pounds on green investment if it gets into power.

But what impact do party membership numbers have in the modern age and how worried should Labour be?

According to figures released to the party’s powerful ruling body, the National Executive Committee (NEC), membership numbers have fallen by 23,000 members, even as the party continues to trounce the Tories in the opinion polls and a survey suggests the next election will deliver a Labour landslide.

The figures, reported by The Observer, revealed that membership had fallen from 390,000 in January to 366,604 at the last count.

That said, Labour Party membership has long been well down on the more than 500,000 achieved during the Jeremy Corbyn years.

Labour has been under intense pressure from parts of its membership in recent months over the war in Gaza and its U-turn on plans to spend £28bn in green investment if it wins the keys to Downing Street later this year.

Labour insiders believe the drop is primarily fuelled by anger over the Middle East and Sir Keir Starmer‘s initial refusal to call for an immediate ceasefire in the conflict. In November 10 members of his front bench resigned or were sacked after they voted for a Scottish National Party motion that called for a ceasefire. Since the war started in October the party has also lost at least 70 councillors who resigned in protest over Labour’s stance on Gaza.

Last week Shabana Mahmood, the shadow justice secretary, talked of the impact after Sir Keir appeared to say on LBC radio that Israel had the right to withhold water and power from the besieged territory. “I think the LBC interview and a couple of other things about that period led to a loss of trust between us and the British Muslim community which obviously we need to put right,” she said. A job which she added was not easy because “people are hurt”.

There have also been strong feelings over the party’s flagship policy on environmental investment, which is designed to boost economic growth.

As well as a strong poll lead, the party is in a good financial position, even with fewer dues from members. It has received a number of large donations and is expected to get more as the election approaches. Senior Labour figures believe the war in Gaza will be less of an issue for the party going forward. They point to the party’s decision to call last month for “an immediate humanitarian ceasefire” as a turning point. They believe this will satisfy most of the party’s supporters who have concerns about the death and suffering in the Middle East.

However, as always, the proof is in the pudding. Chaotic scenes in the Commons last month saw Sir Keir spared the difficulty of a rebellion by some of his frontbench. But will ordinary rank-and-file members be satisfied with the party’s stance – and how long it has taken to get there? Observers will be awaiting the next update on member numbers at the NEC as one way to tell.