No Jeremy Corbyn: What’s next for Labour’s left?

Jeremy Corbyn won’t be a Labour candidate at the next general election, Sir Keir Starmer has said, also warning that members resistant to changes in the party should leave. Mr Corbyn, who has been MP for Islington North since 1983, has been sitting as an independent since having the Labour whip withdrawn in October 2020. He has not yet said if he will stand as an independent, but some supporters believe he could win a contest because of strong local support. “Jeremy Corbyn will not stand for Labour at the next general election as a Labour Party candidate,” Sir Keir said. “What I said about the Labour Party changing I meant, and we are not going back.”

Could Corbyn still be an MP in the next parliament?

It is possible, but difficult. There’s no rule to prevent him from standing as a non-Labour candidate. This has occasionally happened in the past, where an ex-Labour MP has stood either as “independent Labour” or for a new party, such as the SDP in the 1980s or Change UK in 2019. Few have managed to win, and even fewer have managed to hang on for more than one parliamentary term. Labour activists who assisted Corbyn in a campaign against an official party candidate would be liable for expulsion. WO Davies, Dick Taverne and Eddie Milne are some historical examples of Labour MPs going on to defeat an official candidate in their constituency. George Galloway did so in a different constituency with the support of the specially formed group, Respect.

To his advantage, Corbyn has been a well-known and assiduous constituency MP and enjoys a colossal majority of 26,188 – 48 per cent – and his profile means he could win with even a fraction of the support he received in 2019. If it were close, his survival might depend on how the Liberal Democrat, Conservative, Green and Brexit/Reform Party votes were distributed. It would surely be a bit of a circus.

Does it matter if he is in the House of Commons?

It’s hard to argue that it does. Corbyn would continue to be a reminder to anyone interested that there is still an alternative path for the Labour Party to take – the one he trod between 2016 and 2019, including the unexpectedly successful 2017 general election campaign. Not to be forgotten, Corbyn managed to deprive the Tories of a majority and wasn’t far from winning power thanks to the biggest increase in Labour vote share since 1945. Theresa May did a lot to help Corbyn; but there was no mistaking his obvious enjoyment out on the stump. It remains a tantalising moment of inspiration for the left.

Inside the Commons, Corbyn might prove a minor embarrassment to his party leadership, and Conservatives would be able to point to him and remind the Labour front bench that they once wanted him to be in No 10. On the other hand, Starmer can, as now, reply that Corbyn has been thrown out of the party, his lonely presence in parliament a reminder of that fact.

What next for the Labour left?

They need a charismatic leader. In the past, such figures as Nye Bevan and Tony Benn placed themselves at the head of grassroots movements to shift the party leftward. Corbyn was unusual in finding himself being elected to the leadership of the party when he least expected it, by Momentum.

There’s no strong, obvious candidate to take on the work of Corbyn, especially given that Angela Rayner and some others have made their accommodation with the Starmer leadership and decided to compromise with the electorate. The time has probably passed for John McDonnell and Diane Abbott. Rebecca Long-Bailey, once the anointed successor to Corbyn and briefly a member of Starmer’s shadow cabinet, is probably the future left figurehead unless Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester and ex-New Labour cabinet minister, decides a lurch to the left would suit his purposes. Aside from them, in the Socialist Campaign Group in parliament there are Dawn Butler, Zara Sultana, and Richard Burgon, in declining order of effectiveness.

But didn’t Starmer want Corbyn to be prime minister?

Embarrassingly for Starmer, yes. Starmer now condemns Corbyn for the growth of antisemitism in the party (which Corbyn denies) but was once his loyal shadow Brexit secretary and told at least one interviewer he was “100 per cent” behind Corbyn. Like Jon Ashworth, Emily Thornberry and others, Starmer has had to explain why he wanted to instal a man he now so emphatically rejects. Starmer argues he was working against antisemitism in private, which doesn’t really answer the question about why he didn’t quit in protest when those efforts failed and Labour was subject to an Equalities and Human Rights Commission investigation.

As we know now, Starmer didn’t believe in much of the 2017 and 2019 election manifestos either. “Collective responsibility” can only go so far as an excuse for that. Overall, Starmer’s critics, on the left and on the right, point to his shifting views on Corbyn (from next premier to pariah), Brexit (Remain to second referendum to “making it work”) and nationalisation (finessed to nothing) as evidence he is not to be trusted.

Is Corbyn’s exile good or bad for Starmer’s party?

On balance, good. Taking Labour from its 2019 drubbing to a 20 percentage point lead over the Tories has silenced many of Starmer's critics and suggests the public aren’t much bothered about his drift to Blairism and his acceptance of Brexit. Starmer may hope that picking on Corbyn, 73, makes him look tough but his dull image and lacklustre personal ratings seem to have stuck fast. Corbyn remains more charismatic and, in many parts of Labour, more fondly regarded. The rest of the country? Not so much.