Israel election: can Benjamin Netanyahu win on both fronts?

Even by the sometimes colourful standards of Israeli politics, the current situation in Jerusalem is bizarre. Of course Benjamin Netanyahu, the man who has dominated the scene on and off for more than two decades, is at the centre of the action. For most political leaders, having to form a coalition government from a collection of fractious and fragmentary parliamentary groupings would be perplexing challenge enough. To do so at the same time as attending a trial where you find yourself arraigned on quite serious charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust? Well, you might say, only in Israel – or at least, only with “Bibi”.

Forming another government, which would be his sixth since 1996, is probably the less tricky task, and certainly the less hazardous to Netanyahu’s continued freedom. His Likud party did “win” the general election on 23 March, but only in the sense of being the biggest minnow in the Knesset. Of the 120 members of the legislature, Likud accounts for 30, seven fewer than at the previous election. The next largest party, the centrist Yesh Atid, is on 17 seats, and its leader, an ex-news presenter called Yair Lapid, is even less likely than Netanyahu to find willing partners. The other 63 seats (in fact a majority) are divided up between a further 11 political parties. Having governed in a short-lived and unstable partnership with the previous largest opposition grouping – the centre-right Blue and White alliance, led by Benny Gantz – Netanyahu seems likely to turn once more to traditional allies on the religious right. The implications for what passes for a peace process in the region are obvious, despite the arrival of a new incumbent in the White House.

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Israel has long enjoyed, if that’s the right word, a lively and richly diverse political ecosystem. Much of this is due to its unusually pure form of proportional representation, using a closed national list system (so voters cannot choose directly any individuals, only the party slate), combined with a low 3.25 per cent threshold to gain seats in parliament. The long-term decline of the Israeli Labor Party, once the hegemonic force, is both cause and symptom of the dysfunctional system.

Politically, Netanyahu is hardly in a strong position, though he has long experience in using that to his advantage. With the glaring exception of Israel’s world-leading vaccination programme – now supplemented with the apparently smooth-running “Green pass” vaccine passport system – the recent Netanyahu administrations haven’t been outstanding successes, and probably relied too much on the goodwill of Donald Trump. No doubt continuing questions about Bibi’s personal integrity haven’t helped matters, which is why the corruption trial will prove at the least a distraction, and at the worst signal the end of his long political career – though this charismatic figure commands the fierce loyalty of a substantial fan base, who believe he can do no wrong in a sort of Trumpian way.

However, others do not share that view. The lead prosecutor at the Jerusalem District Court, for instance, who alleges that the prime minister made “improper use of the major government power placed in him to demand and obtain improper benefits from the owners of major Israeli media outlets to advance his personal interests”. There is plenty of lurid detail to occupy the Israeli media, or at least elements of it, for some weeks to come. Serious as the charges are, Netanyahu is innocent until proven guilty, and navigating such treacherous legal waters is second nature to him. There is precedent too: back in 2008 another serving premier, Ehud Olmert, faced charges of corruption (and was eventually found guilty).

With the best will in the world, it is a murky picture. Netanyahu, a former commando officer, will spend the next few weeks battling on two fronts, so to speak. He’ll probably enjoy it.