Ahead of the general election, where does each party stand on immigration?

The basic facts about migration to the UK are fairly clear. On the latest annual data available, relating to the year to September 2018, net immigration from outside the EU is sharply up, at 261,000, the highest since 2004. On the other hand net migration from other EU states was on a downward trend, falling to its lowest since 2009 at 57,000 (derived from 202,000 arriving, but 145,000 leaving). Since the Brexit referendum net EU migration has been falling.

More people are coming to the UK to study, with non-EU student immigration at its highest level since 2011. At the moment, students are treated statistically the same way as anyone else.

Such facts though are sometimes disputed, even by those who produced them. The Office for National Statistics, for example, cautioned in August that the level of migration from the EU to the UK has been underestimated by the ONS from the mid-2000s to 2016. The ONS said the error affected the number of migrants from eight of the countries that joined the EU in 2004, including Poland. It said it may have also overstated migration from non-EU countries.

In broad terms, net immigration to the UK, from whatever source, is running at a relatively strong rate in historic terms, and most politicians and observers agree that it was a factor, to some extent, in the EU referendum result. British general elections have generally not featured immigration as a central issue, though from time to time, as with Enoch Powell’s interventions in the 1960s and 1970s, the BNP’s agitations in the 2000s, the question has been raised and at times affected general elections, and, latterly, European elections.

Immigration and the separate issue of policy towards refugees and asylum seekers have long been extremely sensitive, not to say contentious, with facts, trends, motivations and consequences all hotly disputed. Although presumably more detail will be set out in their manifestos and statements, the political parties are, at the moment, surprisingly vague on the detail of this high-profile issue. The Conservatives, for example, seem likely to abandon their figure for net migration of 100,000, set by David Cameron in April 2011. The then prime minister stated:

“If we take the steps set out today, and deal with all the different avenues of migration, legal and illegal, then levels of immigration can return to where they were in the 1980s and 1990s, a time when immigration was not a front-rank political issue. And I believe that will mean net migration to this country will be in the order of tens of thousands each year, not the hundreds of thousands every year that we have seen over the last decade.

“Yes, Britain will always be open to the best and brightest from around the world and those fleeing persecution. But with us, our borders will be under control and immigration will be at levels our country can manage. No ifs. No buts. That’s a promise we made to the British people. And it’s a promise we are keeping.”

Since that time the promise has rarely been fulfilled, and has mutated from its status as a cap through to a target and then an aspiration. Despite net migration running at more than double the number, and despite the free movement of labour from the EU making it challenging to fulfil, Theresa May, as home secretary and then prime minister, stuck to it. At the last election, the Tories pledged to deliver “controlled, sustainable migration, with net migration down to the tens of thousands”.

Since then, much has changed and the present Conservative approach is based on three pillars. First, a reluctance to state whether immigration will be higher or lower than it is now; second, the control of numbers coming from the EU, post-Brexit; and third, a “points-based system” to ensure the “best and the brightest” come to the UK, according to the country’s economic needs, with for example “fast track” work visas for health professionals in the NHS. The impression is sometimes given that a points-based system would be restricted to niche skills and in small numbers – but that is not necessarily the case. Besides, the UK has displayed a strong demand for unskilled workers in sectors such as social care, hospitality and agriculture.

For Labour, the issue is tied up to what deal they succeed in negotiating with the EU, and how far free movement of workers would be accepted – and what the verdict of a people’s vote would be. Otherwise, the party (in its 2019 European elections manifesto) says it would exclude students from the figures; reject “bogus immigration targets” and: “Whatever our trade arrangements, we will need new migration management systems, transparent and fair to everybody. Working with businesses, trade unions, devolved governments and others to identify specific labour and skill shortages. Working together we will institute a new system which is based on our economic needs, balancing controls and existing entitlements. This may include employer sponsorship, work permits, visa regulations or a tailored mix of all these which works for the many, not the few.”

The Liberal Democrats’ policy is implied by their commitment to revoke Brexit: “Freedom of movement has brought the UK tremendous social, economic cultural benefits … [and] enriches our British, national and regional identities. EU citizens make a huge contribution to the UK. 63,000 EU nationals work in the NHS in England and 104,000 work in the adult social care sector. Overall, 10 per cent of the NHS’s doctors and 7 per cent of its nurses are EU nationals, and 7 per cent of social care workers are from the EU. A third of EU doctors working in Scotland are considering leaving, compounding the existing NHS recruitment crisis. Around 13,000 schoolteachers in the UK are EU citizens. Without EU nationals these services would be even more stretched than they already are.”

However, the party is less transparent about its intentions towards non-EU migrants.

The Brexit Party’s attitude to immigration is obviously also centred on Brexit, and a general scepticism about the value of inward migration, but so far Nigel Farage’s group has not issued any policy document on migration to judge the specifics of their approach. Indeed, they have said there will be no manifesto for the 2019 general election, offering a “contract with the British people” instead.