Humza Yousaf: What next for Scotland’s first minister whose fate hangs in the balance?

Humza Yousaf is facing a fight for his political life next week, with the Scottish first minister fending off challenges from the Conservatives, Labour and Greens.

Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross has tabled a vote of no confidence in Yousaf’s leadership of the country. While Labour leader Anas Sarwar has put forward a motion of no confidence in the government itself.

The picture is bleak for Yousaf, who succeeded Nicola Sturgeon as SNP leader last March. At worst, the Scottish first minister could find himself out of a job by the end of the week.

At best, the Glasgow Pollok MSP will cling on, but not without plunging the SNP into yet more chaos in the process.

The Independent looks at how the SNP leader has wound up on the brink, and what happens next.

On Thursday morning, Yousaf called an extraordinary press conference to announce the end of the so-called Bute House Agreement, under which the SNP and Greens worked together as a coalition government.

Tensions between the SNP and the Greens had reached breaking point after ministers ditched a key climate change target and moved to pause the use of puberty blockers for under-18s at gender clinics.

The Greens were set to vote on whether to ditch the partnership, but Yousaf pushed them before they could jump, sparking fury among opposition parties.

Scottish Green co-leader Lorna Slater accused the SNP of “selling out future generations”. Ross tabled a motion of no confidence in Yousaf, while Labour followed up with a no-confidence motion in the government itself.

Ross’s motion would see Holyrood express no confidence in Yousaf “in light of his failures in government”.

Sarwar’s would see MSPs express that they have no confidence in the Scottish government, which is an important distinction.

If MSPs backed Ross’s amendment, the first minister would come under major political pressure to step aside, but he would not be legally bound to. Ross has said he will support Labour’s motion.

However, under the 1998 Scotland Act, if MSPs expressed no confidence in the government Yousaf would have to tender his resignation to the King.

His resignation would spark a 28-day period in which the SNP would be able to replace him, but if a candidate can not command the support of the house, an extraordinary general election would be called.

Holyrood’s parliamentary bureau decides which motions are debated and voted on in the chamber, with the Scottish Tory motion likely to take precedence if both are not picked as they are the second largest party.

A key development in the saga is that Yousaf is now reliant on former SNP leadership rival Ash Regan, who defected to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party months after losing the contest.

Awkwardly, when she left the SNP Yousaf said it was “no great loss” for the party.

With his party holding 63 of Holyrood’s 129 seats, Yousaf now faces a situation where his fate may rest entirely in Regan’s hands.

Akash Paun, an expert on devolution at the Institute for Government, told The Independent the main beneficiaries are Labour.

Were an election to be called in Scotland, the SNP and Scottish Conservatives – as well as Regan – would likely face significant losses.

“Even if the Scottish Conservatives abstain, that gives Labour a stick to beat them with and Yousaf comes out weaker,” he added.

Paun said the most positive outcome for the SNP is the not unlikely outcome Yousaf sees off the confidence votes and is able to cling on leading a minority government.

This would have the benefit of getting rid of the Greens from ministerial roles, who had forced the SNP into unpopular positions in recent months.

Britain’s top polling guru professor John Curtice went further, telling The Independent the Tory no-confidence motion was “God’s gift to the Labour Party”.

He said unionist parties such as Labour and the Conservatives will not want to work in a minority government with Yousaf, which will drive him toward Regan and the Greens.

He said an “escape hatch” will likely be revealed for Yousaf as critics, including Regan, consider the “political reality” of ousting him.

The first minister has said he intends “absolutely to fight that vote of no confidence”, adding that he has “every intention of winning that vote”.

He accused opposition parties of acting in bad faith and said he would seek ways to work together with leaders as a minority government.

He also promised not to resign as first minister over the fiasco.

The motions are expected to be debated and voted on in the middle of next week, on either Wednesday or Thursday.

It all comes amid an increasingly bleak backdrop for the SNP, with former chief executive Peter Murrell, ex-first minister Sturgeon’s husband, having been charged in connection with the embezzlement of SNP funds.

Police Scotland confirmed this month that Murrell, who served as the party’s chief executive for 22 years, had been arrested and charged over the investigation. Sturgeon was arrested two months after her husband was first held in April last year, while former party treasurer Colin Beattie was also arrested last year. Both were released without charge, pending further investigation.