What the Georgia Senate result means for the Democrats – and Donald Trump

Despite the attempts at voter suppression, despite all the money expended by the Republicans, despite (or possibly because of) Donald Trump’s approval of his candidature, Herschel Walker failed to take incumbent Raphael Warnock’s Georgia Senate seat. As the last aftershock of the midterm elections, it represents a remarkable achievement for the Democrats and Joe Biden.

Despite losing control of the House of Representatives, the Democrats did far better than expected in the Senate races, which means that President Biden has a little more hope of passing at least some legislation, ensures that Democrats control and chair senate committees, and helps him gain approval for executive appointments, for example to the Supreme Court. The balance of power in Washington hasn’t moved as far to the right as anticipated, which was clear in November, but the Georgia win was especially sweet.

In the Deep South, Georgia and in particular its great cities such as Atlanta are changing, demographically, culturally and politically. Ever since Richard Nixon’s southern strategy, the Republicans have sought to use social and economic conservatism to peel southern states,  historically Democrat, to the Republican columns. Under Ronald Reagan and subsequent Republican leaderships, the process accelerated. Now, though, there is a more liberal mood crossing parts of the south, and Georgia is the leader.

It’s also especially sweet because of the way Georgia become one of the most hotly contested states in the 2020 presidential election, and a focus for much of the Trumpite election denial activity. It may augur well for the 2024 contest too.

Now minds are trying to that election, and the prospect of a re-run of the 2020 Trump-Biden fight doesn’t thrill everyone. Either man would be well into their 80s if they managed to complete their term, and inevitably the election would be complicated by their choice of running mate. In the case of Trump, the Florida governor Ron DeSantis is already emerging as an undeclared but likely challenger, and with obviously less conspiratorial and legal baggage than former president Trump. The latest legal judgment against the Trump organisation on tax evasion demonstrates just how hazardous a Trump run would be. He still has his loyal fan base, but it seems difficult for him to widen his appeal, especially after the January 6 2021 attempted insurrection.

On the Democrat side, President Biden has said he’s seeking a second term, and oftentimes that would be that, as it was for Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. But travel further back and we find incumbent Democrat presidents troubled and distracted by possible or actual challengers. Incumbent Jimmy Carter was almost usurped by Teddy Kennedy in the run-up to 1980, just as the intervention Robert Kennedy helped make President Johnson’s mind up not to seek nor accept his party’s nomination for re-election in 1968.

President Biden’s only real problem is his age – he turned 80 last month (Obama is 61 and Clinton a stripling of 76). Kamala Harris, the vice president, must be thinking about her options. Some Democrats are also toying with the likes of a trio of governors – Jared Polis (Colorado), Gavin Newsom (California) and Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan). The transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg and Gina Raimondo, commerce secretary, are also fresher faces. It seems ungrateful, given what Joe Biden has done for his party and his country by removing Trump, but a greater service might be to stand aside to ensure there’s no return to Trump or indeed Trumpism under some less ridiculous figure.