Why has Nigel Farage scrapped plans for his Brexit Party to contest 600 seats at the general election?

It might look like an early Christmas present for Boris Johnson, but Nigel Farage’s decision that the Brexit Party will not contest the 317 the Conservatives won at the 2017 election was more about safeguarding his own legacy.

Farage had been warned by close allies such as Arron Banks and Tory Eurosceptics, that his reputation risked slumping from the hero who forced David Cameron to hold the 2016 referendum, to the man who “lost Brexit” by splitting the Leave vote at this election.

He was also under intense pressure from pro-Brexit newspapers to scrap his plan to contest 600 seats. The Daily Mail told him on Monday: “Don’t hand No 10 to Corbyn by mistake.” Farage said he was acting in the national interest rather than his party’s, but it was also out of self-interest.

He had previously condemned Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement as “not Brexit” and demanded he abandon it in favour of no deal, which was never going to happen. For a tiny fig leaf, he took comfort from a Twitter video in which Johnson vowed not to extend the transitional period beyond December 2020, by when he wanted a Canada-style free trade agreement with the EU without “political alignment”.

The former Ukip leader had hoped to draw Johnson into negotiations on a “Leave alliance” giving the Brexit Party a free run in Labour-held areas which voted Leave in 2016. Johnson didn’t blink, but Farage did, offering a “unilateral pact”.

While the prime minister denied any secret talks, there were private discussions among go-betweens from the Brexit Party and the Tory European Reform Group. Farage’s announcement prompted speculation he would be rewarded later by Johnson nominating him for the peerage he covets.

To secure that, Farage might have to go further (though he claimed he was offered a peerage last Friday but was not interested). He is now under pressure to stand down his troops in the Labour-held Leave areas. He intends to fight there in the hope of securing a block of MPs who would hold the balance of power in a hung parliament, giving them leverage on a minority Tory government.

However, the danger is that a split Leave vote in these seats allows Labour to retain them, denying Johnson the gains he needs to form the next government.

Farage acknowledged that, if his party had fielded 600 candidates, the Liberal Democrats would have gained Tory seats, so parties committed to a Final Say referendum could be in power. But his move doesn’t kill that prospect. Nor does it guarantee his party will have any MPs in the next parliament. It won the May European parliament elections with 32 per cent of the vote, but has been squeezed since Johnson entered Downing Street, and stands at 10 per cent in the opinion polls. Labour will now be able to portray a vote for it as a proxy vote for the Tories.

Farage might have to beat another retreat to ensure his place in the history books as the father of Brexit.