Why the Liberal Democrats are standing against anti-Brexit Labour candidates

When the Liberal Democrats agreed to help Boris Johnson secure a pre-Christmas general election, they insisted that doing so was the only way to stop Brexit.

With it looking likely that the prime minister had the numbers needed to pass his Brexit deal, they said an election to oust the Tories from power was the only way to stop that happening.

Since then, however, they have decided to field candidates in seats where the Tories and Labour are neck and neck – a move, critics say, that will split the anti-Brexit vote and increase the chances of Johnson winning a majority on 12 December.

Those critics point out that the Lib Dems have agreed to stand down in some areas in favour of candidates from the Green Party, Plaid Cymru and some independents who support a fresh Brexit referendum, and ask why they will not do the same for Labour candidates campaigning for a Final Say vote.

While there are only a handful of seats that the Liberal Democrats are likely to win from Labour, the risk for Remainers arises in Tory-Labour marginals where the Lib Dems standing increases the prospects of the Conservatives winning.

A prime example is Canterbury, where incumbent Labour MP Rosie Duffield has a majority of just 187 over the Tories. The Liberal Democrats are a long way behind in third place and have no prospect of winning the seat.

Despite Duffield being a strong supporter of a fresh Brexit referendum, and local Lib Dems saying they would rather support her, Swinson has insisted on fielding a Lib Dem candidate in the constituency. That means pro-EU voters are likely to split between the Lib Dems and Labour, probably allowing the Conservatives to regain the seat.

The Liberal Democrats give two main reasons for their refusal to stand aside in seats like this and others held by pro-referendum Labour MPs.

The first is that Labour is not a Remain party. Jeremy Corbyn has vowed to renegotiate the current Brexit deal, which the Lib Dems say is proof of his commitment to delivering Brexit.

And while Labour’s policy is to put whatever deal it negotiates with Brussels to a public vote, with the other option being to remain in the EU, the party will not say which side a Labour government would argue for.

Instead, it would hold a “special conference” once a new deal was agreed to decide whether to urge voters to back it or to instead support Remain.

The Lib Dems say they will not work with a party that is not committed to stopping Brexit. Even if some Labour MPs oppose Brexit, helping them get elected would increase the chances of Corbyn becoming prime minister – something the Lib Dems will not do.

This is not just because of Brexit: Swinson has highlighted Corbyn’s record on antisemitism among other reasons why she will not help deliver a Labour government.

The second reason that the Liberal Democrats give for not standing aside is more political. Why, they ask, should they step down if Labour is not willing to do likewise? Corbyn has completely ruled out electoral pacts with other parties. Unlike the Remain parties, Labour is not committed to stopping Brexit and so has no reason to stand down to help anti-Brexit MPs.

Lib Dems point out that this means that if they stepped aside in some seats, they would get nothing in return.

But while it is true that they would not benefit electorally, they would increase their chances of securing the outcome that they say is their primary aim: stopping Brexit.

There is a third factor behind the Lib Dems’ strategy, albeit not one they talk about publicly, and that is how it would look to voters if the party stood down candidates to help Labour.

Swinson is trying to re-establish the Liberal Democrats as a serious and credible party. She knows that they traditionally suffer from people who naturally support them deciding that doing so at the ballot box would be a waste of a vote.

The party needs to change that outlook, and that is why the Lib Dem leader is making far-fetched predictions about winning a majority and becoming prime minister.

Standing down candidates would undermine this strategy. It would suggest that the Liberal Democrats were a junior party to Labour and were more interested in individual policy matters, namely Brexit, than winning seats and power.

Regardless of the reasons for it, Swinson’s decision has been widely criticised, including by some within her own party.

Whether it was the right move will only become clear on 12 December. The Lib Dems may win enough seats to hold the balance of power and force a fresh Brexit referendum. But if their insistence on standing against Labour helps hand Boris Johnson the majority he needs to deliver Brexit, that decision, and those who made it, can expect to be on the receiving end of a significant amount of anger.