Why the Labour Party is so keen to push for a May general election

Rishi Sunak’s plan to hold a May general election is the “worst kept secret in parliament” – according to Emily Thornberry.

Labour’s shadow attorney general said on Thursday that Jeremy Hunt’s 6 March Budget date is “confirmation” of a spring contest.

“The country is desperate for an election,” she told Sky News.

But would Mr Sunak call an election earlier than necessary, with the Conservatives almost 20 points behind Labour in the polls? And does Labour really believe he would?

The Independent looks at speculation around the election date, and why Labour is keen to talk up a spring contest.

What’s in it for Labour?

By building expectations of a contest this spring, Labour is setting the stage to accuse Mr Sunak of “bottling it” if he holds on until the autumn.

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Gordon Brown was badly damaged by his decision not to call an election after taking the Labour crown from his predecessor Sir Tony Blair. His authority was dampened, sparking accusations of “weakness and indecision” from his opposite number David Cameron and it led to a falling out among his top team.

As well as a potential attack line against the Tories, touting a May election will serve to focus minds in Labour HQ. Shadow ministers have been told to finalise manifesto policies by 8 February, while their advisers have been briefed by campaign chief Morgan McSweeney on what the run into an election would look like.

Moving to an election footing will also ensure discipline and stamp out any complacency in the party as it powers ahead in the polls. So for Ms Thornberry and the rest of Sir Keir Starmer’s top team, continuing to trumpet the prospect of a May election appears to be a win-win strategy.

What’s in it for the Conservatives?

Not very much. One reason for Mr Sunak to call an earlier election is that every month he waits, thousands more households are forced to renew their mortgages at sharply higher rates.

But with a 19-point gap in the polls between Labour and the Conservatives, disgruntled mortgage holders are merely part of the problem. After several relaunches and Mr Hunt’s tax-cutting autumn statement, the Tories have failed to close the gap.

And while some in the party argue that Mr Sunak should call an earlier election – to minimise the scale of the Conservatives’ losses – the overwhelming temptation for the PM will be to hold on and hope for a turnaround.

So why let the speculation run on?

While Mr Sunak’s closest aides are set on an autumn election, some Tories are talking up an earlier contest in the hope Labour will spend (and largely waste) campaign funds earlier to avoid being wrong-footed.

So when will the general election be?

Despite Ms Thornberry’s claim, only the PM and his most trusted advisers likely know exactly when the election will fall.

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Under the current rules, the latest a general election can be held is January 2025, but Mr Sunak has insisted one will take place in 2024.

A May election offers some pros for the PM, but a vote next autumn still looks like the most likely outcome.