Could Northern Ireland’s power-sharing deadlock finally be over?

Attempts by the government to persuade the Democratic Unionist Party to rejoin Northern Ireland’s power-sharing institutions seems to be reaching an endgame. The main unionist party has been blocking normal business since last year, and the strain on public services is becoming unbearable. The situation also makes it ever more difficult to revive political cooperation and prevent anything like a return to the Troubles.

Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, has been unusually outspoken and optimistic about the situation. He says there is an “ever-diminishing number of questions that we have to answer from the DUP”.

However, he added: “I’m not going to set a timeline to it… we are in the final stages. I could go further… I could say we are in the final, final stages of this.”

What has been the problem?

Northern Ireland’s devolved government hasn’t functioned for almost 18 months. This has not only led to political instability, and some outbreaks of violence, but also a cessation of normal democratic governance. Most routine administrative decisions are taken on a caretaker basis by civil servants instead of members of the executive. Some strategic and political matters can be dealt with by the secretary of state and his ministers; but the usual setting of priorities over public services is absent, as is a voice for the people of Northern Ireland.

Why the boycott?

These have been in abeyance since the May 2022 elections in which the DUP finished narrowly behind Sinn Fein, losing its right to nominate the first minister for the first time since the present executive and assembly were created. The DUP’s ostensible reason for not turning up at Stormont was intense dissatisfaction over the Northern Ireland protocol, which was part of the Brexit deal with the EU. The protocol introduced the infamous “sea border” that sees checks on certain goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland – but not vice versa, and not across the border with Ireland.

Didn’t the Windsor Framework solve the problems?

Not entirely. Despite an excellent press and some substantial changes to the original Brexit deal, the Windsor Framework (WF) remains unsatisfactory to many in the DUP and the wider unionist community. The Ulster Unionist Party, and others, say the best way to improve Northern Ireland’s position is through the government of the province; they say the WF is an agreement between the UK and EU and can’t be vetoed by the executive.

In fact, the WF gives the DUP an effective veto or “brake” on EU laws it doesn’t like – but the convention is that this will be exercised rarely.

What other issues are there?

Worryingly, there are quite a few. Before the DUP boycott, there were fundamental disagreements, such as about the legal status or “esteem” afforded to the Irish language. Also complicating matters is an argument between the British and Irish governments, as well as victims’ groups, about the wisdom and legality of the government’s Troubles Legacy Act; this legislation gives a conditional amnesty to those accused of killings during 30 years of the Troubles, including extra-judicial actions by Crown forces and the various paramilitaries. Dublin says this contravenes the European Convention on Human Rights.

Aside from all that, Priti Patel (of all people) has been stirring things up again, encouraging the DUP to reject the WF as the “tentacles of EU control over Northern Ireland” that pose “a risk to the integrity of our United Kingdom”. Some say the former home secretary fancies herself as a stalking horse to usurp Mr Sunak after the likely Tory election defeat.

Why is the DUP so stubborn?

Because it has much to lose, and feels threatened by the constitutional changes wrought by Brexit (though the DUP backed Leave and the population of the province voted Remain). They’re paranoid, and often with good reason.

The chances of a referendum on a united Ireland succeeding have been slowly creeping up (ironically, given that Brexit made life less settled than at any time since the Troubles began in 1969, or even partition in 1922.)

Support for the DUP has been going in the other direction in recent years; crudely speaking, it has been shedding moderate supporters to the non-aligned Alliance Party and hardliners to Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). Strategically, the DUP leadership has decided not to be outflanked by TUV.

Could the boycott work?

Unfortunately it was DUP and allied Tory backbench pressure that saw the Northern Ireland protocol supplanted by the WF, which some might see as proof that boycotts work. However, there really is no chance of the EU agreeing to yet more changes to the WF, at least before the general election.

How soon could we see Sinn Fein and the DUP working in partnership again?

It may not be imminent. DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson has been fond of remarking that he’s “in no hurry” to get things back to normal, lest any compromise be seen as weakness on the loyalist wing of politics and evidence of treachery and betrayal. Another of the many ironies in this whole saga is that it was Boris Johnson and Leavers who betrayed the DUP in their rush to “get Brexit done” at the end of 2019. There is no great incentive for the DUP to end its present boycott, and its tenacity has been rewarded with a consolidation in political support. Ends to dispute come slowly in this part of the world. After all, it’s been 800 years already…