What does the future hold for Dominic Raab?

It can’t be easy being Dominic Raab at the best of times. Without wishing to cast aspersions about his personality, this amateur boxer and fitness fanatic often gives the public impression of being a little tense, and certainly highly driven.

He’s not afraid of his own convictions – a Brexiteer of unusually unbending determination - and his ambitions remain undimmed by intimations of mere human frailty. Removed from the Foreign Office by Boris Johnson after the West’s botched departure from Afghanistan, he is in his second stint as justice secretary and deputy prime minister. Obviously he made himself useful to the Rishi Sunak leadership campaigns.

But it’s 'not glad confident morning again' for Raab. Dogged by allegations about his behaviour towards officials, five further complaints about him have been field and are being investigated, according to Number 10. This time, according to the prime minister's official spokesman, the claims relate to Raab's previous tenure as justice secretary. So now a total of eight complaints are being investigated by the senior lawyer Adam Tolley KC.

Raab has consistently denied allegations of bullying. A Ministry of Justice spokesperson has said: "There is zero tolerance for bullying across the civil service. The deputy prime minister leads a professional department, driving forward major reforms, where civil servants are valued and the level of ambition is high”.

Still, it is an unfortunate fact of political life that mud sticks, and hard-won reputations can be easily lost. They are even more easily dented if some merits about a claim of bullying are discovered. Priti Patel survived her own brush with such allegations and criticism by the then independent adviser on ministerial conduct, Sir Alex Allan, when a self-indulgent Boris Johnson ignored Allan’s reports and reportedly ordered his MP’s to “form a defensive square around the Pritster”. Even so, eventually, she fell from grace and high office.

How will Raab fare? Obviously, much does depend on what Tolley KC says, and what level of proof he decides to adopt (something Raab, a layer by trade, will understand). Sunak is less tolerant than Johnson of such failings, or at least purports to be: he famously declared he wanted his administration would have “integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level”. The claims against Raab doesn’t sit easily with such lofty aims, and even if Tolley KC gives Raab the benefit of the doubt, Raab will be vulnerable to any future reshuffle. On the other hand, such is Sunak’s weak base in the party that he needs the likes of Raab on the inside of the tent.

Although Raab still wants to get his pet project, the “British Bill of Rights” passed into law, it’s in danger of being pulled again (Liz Truss cancelled it before). Sunak has more important parliamentary battles to fight – and the PM failed to mention it in his recent statement on the refugee crisis.

Looking only a little further ahead, Raab faces a difficult fight to hang on to his Europhiliac seat of Esher and Walton, where he only just saw off a spirited Liberal Democrat challenge at the 2019 general election, even at a moment of Conservative hegemony. As a result Raab defends a thin majority of 2,743 (4.4 per cent) at a time of severe Conservative weakness. Given the fact he’s likely to lose the seat anyway, Raab could, cynically, suggest to Sunak that he could quit parliament and force a by-election if the justice secretary thinks Sunak is about to sack him. Or he could make the best of his remaining time in the Commons.

Either way, the eventful political career of Dominic Raab looks to be drawing to its close. He'd certainly be quite the contestant on I'm a Celebrity…Get Me Out of Here! He could terrify a scorpion.