Is Sajid Javid’s resignation really a victory for Dominic Cummings?

When spin doctors repeatedly assure the media that the prime minister and chancellor are working well together, it is normally a sign that rumours of tensions between them are true.

It happened with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and now with Boris Johnson and Sajid Javid. Although the chancellor’s resignation shocked Westminster, there were warning signs that all was not well between 10 and 11 Downing Street.

Last August, Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s most influential aide, summarily sacked Sonia Khan, one of Javid’s special advisers. There have been persistent rumours that some Johnson allies did not rate Javid’s performance as chancellor. They talked up his deputy Rishi Sunak, an early backer of Johnson in last year’s Tory leadership election, when Javid ran against him. Sunak was handed two TV debates in the general election campaign, and Javid none – despite his seniority. Rumours swirled that Javid intended to press Johnson to dismiss the controversial Cummings after the election, but backed off when he won a thumping majority.

There was anger in No 10 when Javid’s team briefed the media about his support for the £106bn HS2 project. Team Boris likes to control the message. Johnson took revenge on Monday when he gave HS2 the go-ahead, also announcing some transport schemes due to be in Javid’s March Budget.

Some cabinet ministers believed that Johnson aides talked up Sunak just to get under Javid’s skin; he was even dubbed “Chino” – chancellor in name only. But it now seems that they had Sunak in mind for the chancellor’s job – perhaps later, but now it has happened sooner.

Cummings is very clever at creating “win, win” solutions for his master. It is possible that he did just that in the reshuffle. Javid would either have to fire his special advisers and work with a new, joint No 10 and 11 team of advisers, swallowing a shift in power from the Treasury to the prime minister’s office. Or he would refuse and resign in protest. If he quit, Johnson had what he might have called an “oven-ready” replacement in Sunak. Javid duly resigned, saying no self-respecting minister could accept an edict to sack his key advisers.

Some Tory MPs thought Cummings’ influence was on the wane after an apparent run of defeats – on HS2; Huawei’s role in providing the UK’s 5G mobile network; a shake-up of Whitehall departments to accompany the reshuffle and a needless row with Westminster journalists by excluding some from No 10 briefings. Cummings reportedly clashed with Johnson’s partner Carrie Symonds, who was said to fear that Cummings’ aggressive approach was damaging the PM.

Symonds will be saddened by Javid’s departure. She was formerly his special adviser, and sometimes acted as an unofficial go-between for him and Johnson.

It now seems that the MPs’ hopes that “we have passed peak Dom” might have been wishful thinking. In his battle with the chancellor, the backroom adviser had more power than the frontline politician, because he had the PM’s support.

Johnson will suffer some short-term turbulence over the unexpected loss of his chancellor. But he has strengthened his grip on the government machine and, crucially, enjoys more power over the Treasury. He has a cabinet of loyalists, an 80-seat Commons majority and now enjoys untrammelled power.