How significant is the fundraising gap between Democrats and Republicans?

Political fundraising, whether we like it or not, is the lifeblood for many campaigns – so what can current fundraising trends tell us about the position of the Democrats and the Republicans ahead of the midterms in November?

Although the GOP still has the upper hand in terms of midterm predictions, with most political analysts suggesting that the party could take control of the House of Representatives at least, there is positive news for the Democrats in terms of fundraising.

In the Senate, Pennsylvania Democrat, and current Lieutenant Governor, John Fetterman – who has been off the campaign trail for around two months after a life-threatening stroke – raised nearly $11m (£9.2m) during the second quarter of the year (until 30 June). That was double the $5.5m raised by his Republican rival, the celebrity heart surgeon Mehmet Oz.

In two states where Democrats are expected to come under pressure – Georgia (candidate Raphael Warnock) and Arizona (Mark Kelly) – the pair brought in $17.2m and nearly $13.6m, respectively, during the same period. That leaves both candidates with warchests that are the envy of their Republican rivals.

When it comes to small donors, the Democrats also have a significant edge. The fact that the Democrats are ahead is not entirely surprising – historically the party has always relied more on smaller donations than the GOP – but the numbers are interesting. Republican small-dollar fundraising through the party’s preferred online platform, WinRed, came in at 1.26 million online contributions of $200 or less in January. In June that was 1.21 million, according to analysis by The Washington Post.

The total amount these donations came to also fell, from $29.5m in January to $26.6m in June. For the Democrats, the number of donations via its own ActBlue platform was nearly three million in January, growing to four million in June. The total raised from these donations also rose, from $44m to $64m.

While both parties are raising much less than at the same point in 2020, as you might expect when comparing a presidential election year to a midterms year, Democrats have raised about half the nearly $127m they were given in June 2020. For Republicans, that number is 30 per cent. Last month, Democrats also raised more than double the amount they raised at the same point (June) in the last midterm election year of 2018.

There are plenty of polling issues for Democrats to keep an eye on – not least Joe Biden’s own approval numbers – and fundraising numbers like these are not the be-all and end-all. But these numbers could also indicate how energised the support base of both parties is, thus giving the Democratic Party an advantage on that front (or that is at least how Democrats might want to see it – former president Donald Trump is still able to pull in the dollars, albeit at a slower rate).

It all adds up to fundraising being an area worth keeping an eye on.