Ministers face nervous few weeks before the results of schools gamble becomes clear

Just after 3pm last Friday marked a milestone that will remain in the memories of millions of parents long after the coronavirus pandemic is over.

Some celebrated the end of an arduous two months of home schooling with an early afternoon gin and tonic.

Others, perhaps fearing the momentous occasion was just too good to be true, have postponed a celebratory glass or two until Monday, when classrooms are finally due to reopen.

Overly cautious or understandable?

After all, on the first Sunday in January Boris Johnson appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr programme to declare schools in England safe.

He repeated that statement on television the very next morning.

But by 5pm that day he had announced that he had ordered every school in the country to close – and to stay that way for weeks – amid rapidly rising rates of Covid-19.

It was, it is fair to say, the start to a new year that both politicians and parents had been dreading.

Now the reopening of schools offers hope to millions.

But it brings dangers for the government as well. Boris Johnson’s ministers are adamant they will not speed up the “roadmap” designed to restore the country to normality, of which schools are just the first element. In a large part, this is because they believe public opinion will look negatively on another lockdown.

Of course, ministers were not supposed to have closed schools in January. Just weeks before they were forced to take the drastic action, the department for education threatened legal action against a London council who wanted to shut a few days early for Christmas.

At that stage cases were already rising rapidly. But ministers were clear. They would only close schools if they absolutely had to. Just days later, they had to.

Will they have to again? An exclusive poll for The Independent shows one in three people fear Monday’s reopening date is too early. Scientific advisers have told ministers that reopening schools risks a rise in the R number, or, that is, increasing the rate at which the disease spreads.

So now ministers, and those keen to see an acceleration in the timings of that all-important roadmap, face a nervous few weeks before they can assess the effects of the return to the classroom. Perhaps it is time for that glass of wine.