Ministers know it’s only a matter of time before the return of Covid restrictions

During the early part of his Budget speech the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, made one very pointed remark about the pandemic: “Today’s Budget does not draw a line under Covid. We have challenging months ahead.”

Indeed not. More than most, Sunak realises that whatever economic progress has been made this year and will be made in the coming years will be jeopardised by another Covid spike, with all that implies for restrictions on social and economic life, for the public finances and, not to be forgotten, the Conservatives’ political prospects and his own chances of succeeding Boris Johnson.

There are increasing signs that the current phase of complacency and a kind of “phoney war” on Covid – it figures surprisingly little in the headlines now – could be drawing to a close. There are more and more hints that certain modest elements of “Plan B” may soon have to be enacted, to forestall a much more violent lockdown later in the year. More than that, though, one senior public health official, Professor Lucy Chappell, chief scientific adviser to the Department of Health and Social Care, has admitted to a select committee the existence of a “Plan C” – stronger measures although not yet extensively worked up. Policies which go beyond plan B include limits on mixing in pubs, cafes and restaurants, and in homes.

The crunch moment is fast approaching. As reported by The Independent, and despite some pressure from expert advisers, ministers have decided to postpone announcing fresh restrictions until after the effects of the schools half-term holidays have made themselves fully felt on Covid infection and, more important, hospitalisation and mortality rates. Even as things stand though, deaths from Covid are running at their highest level since the end of the last big spike, in March.

Politically, the government would find it difficult to persuade a significant cohort of the parliamentary Conservative party to back measures such as mandating mask-wearing, vaccine “passports”, and more working from home, although opinion polls show perhaps surprisingly persistent levels of public support for such moves. On the other hand, Johnson in particular must be concerned that he will have to “cancel Christmas” unless some sort of precautionary policies are put in place now, especially as vaccine-induced immunity fades and the booster vaccine programme fails to pick up the necessary momentum. Herd immunity is still not at the kind of levels that would mean Christmas can be planned for with confidence. The disappointment if people are unable to mix indoors this winter cannot be overestimated.

There would be two more politically important consequences. First, it would mean that Johnson, Sunak and Sajid Javid had failed, again, to learn the lesson of the pandemic – that failure to act early, and waiting for the death rates to start climbing means a more severe lockdown becomes inevitable. That can be seen now, with no recourse to hindsight, and the government’s remaining reputation for competence will be further eroded.

Second, as the chancellor will find, the economy will need further support, if it can be afforded, and his plans to stabilise the public finances will be left in ruin. It was telling, in that context, that he and so many of his colleagues on the front bench were ostentatiously wearing their face coverings in the packed chamber of the House of Commons. They know what’s coming.