Coronavirus: What Boris Johnson must do in the year ahead

It is probably fair to say that Boris Johnson’s premiership isn’t going quite to plan. So as he chairs his first cabinet meeting and takes the first Downing Street media conference in a month, what are his pressing tasks?

Most obviously he needs to get a grip on the government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak and, almost as important, to give the impression of bustling, restless energy and form direction.

First is, as we see, to manage down expectations of any early release from lockdown. With only the most trivial of adjustments, the present social distancing protocols will remain in place for a further three weeks after the 7 May review, and most of them will probably remain long after then. Only with such strict controls in place is there much chance of getting the number of new cases low enough for them to be dealt with by a test and track strategy. At the moment the number of cases and fatalities is past its peak and is on a plateau – but not coming down as rapidly as needed to be planning an early reopening of the economy, schools and normal life. Holding this line as the summer arrives will become steadily more difficult.

Therefore he also needs to fulfil his own stated, though undated, promise of 250,000 coronavirus tests per day. That means more testing kits, apps and staffing to shut down local outbreaks before they get out of control. Tests for those who have immunity will also help get people back to work – but a reliable test is not yet available. Johnson could take personal charge of this, or give his testing “Tsar”, Professor John Newton, more power to cut through any bureaucracy.

Beyond that, he also urgently needs to fix the shortages of protective equipment and indeed ventilators – in case there is a second wave of cases later in the year. Again he will need to decide how much of a personal role to take, how much to leave to the Department of Health and how much to grant other tsars, such as Lord Deighton. He will also, from his pint of view as a Unionist leader, need to try and carry the whole UK along as one during the exit strategy, especially given Nicola Sturgeon’s desire for Scotland to see its own pace and priorities. One problem would be if the devolved administrations wished to stay in lockdown for longer – and how to pay for that.

So then there are the bills. In the new more integrated Downing Street Treasury machine, this may be easier to manage. In time it may prove more tricky to borrow the vast sums needed to keep businesses on life support. Planning ahead means preparing for a moment when it is no longer possible for the British state financially to do “whatever it takes” – with mass unemployment to follow.

Politically, apart from the impression of energy and momentum he will also need to frame an over-arching “narrative” to pre-empt criticisms and any subsequent public enquiries. Thus will basically involve the following components:

Every minister, Conservative MP, keyboard warrior and friendly media voice should be parroting these lines, dictated by the PM himself.

Of course, the rest of running the nation doesn’t get postponed just because of coronavirus. Thus the prime minister will also need to attend to a crowded agenda of other items, large and small: the Brexit talks; the report on Priti Patel’s behaviour; the programme of infrastructure investment and the “levelling-up” project for the north; future relations with China and the US; the COP26 world climate conference and the long term task of building some political consensus.

The early signs are that the government will also have to cope with a more effective Labour opposition than for some time, although for now the Conservatives enjoy a commanding poll lead. Johnson’s ratings are also high, and his only real rival is the as yet still relatively inexperienced chancellor, Rishi Sunak.

Oh, and somewhere along the line he will need to squeeze in a couple of weeks for paternity leave and, maybe, a wedding. Quite a year, then, for Boris Johnson, and plenty of hard political slog afterwards. It is just as well that he shouldn’t have to face the voters in a general election before December 2024.