What does the Chinese spy balloon mean for US-China relations?

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has postponed his trip to China this weekend, with a high-altitude Chinese spy balloon currently making its way across the US. The drama is the latest in a number of diplomatic spats between the two nations – so what happens now?

How did we get here?

The appearance of the balloon alarmed the Pentagon, with its path carrying it over a “number of sensitive” military sites in the US. It has been seen over Montana, which is home to underground intercontinental ballistic missile silos. That prompted the US military to ready its fighter jets, although a decision was made not to shoot the balloon down. It is expected to be in US airspace for a number of days yet, according to US officials.

A senior state department official said it had been “concluded that the conditions are not right at this moment for Secretary Blinken to travel to China”, following what the official described as “consultations” with Congress and “interagency partners”.

What has China said?

Beijing took the rare step of expressing “regret” over the incident, saying in a relatively conciliatory statement that the balloon was a civilian airship used mainly for meteorological research. China said the airship had limited “self-steering” capabilities and had “deviated far from its planned course” because of the wind. The Pentagon said it believed the balloon’s purpose was “surveillance” and that the violation of US airspace was “unacceptable”.

The fact that Beijing offered such a mild statement is a sign of just how seriously it takes the idea of a missed opportunity to try to rebuild relations with Washington after a period of time in which goodwill between the two countries has suffered.

Earlier, state-backed media in China had taunted Washington over the incident. “The balloon itself is a big target,” the Global Times wrote in English on Twitter, a platform that is banned in China. “If balloons from other countries could really enter continental US smoothly, or even enter the sky over certain states, it only proves that the US’s air defence system is completely a decoration and cannot be trusted.” That is closer to the usual barbs that have been published in Beijing during recent diplomatic spats.

What was on the agenda for Blinken’s trip?

The US position regarding Taiwan and its future would certainly have been on the agenda. It is an issue over which Washington and Beijing have repeatedly clashed, with China seeing visits by US politicians and officials as a provocation. That hasn’t been helped by a leaked memo from a US four-star general, Mike Minihan, this week, which said that his “gut” told him the US would be at war with China in 2025 over an invasion of Taiwan by Beijing.

There is also the issue of China’s aggression in the South China Sea, with Washington seeking to reassure its allies in the area that it will not allow China to throw its considerable weight around. Also this week, the Philippines granted the US expanded access to its military bases, which would allow for an enhanced presence by the US military in the region.

There are also other issues around international trade, a long-standing sore point for both countries and something that was a preoccupation of former president Donald Trump, who got into the position of threatening to impose punitive tariffs on goods.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would also have been high on the agenda. Western nations are certain to be concerned about the closeness between Moscow and Beijing, with China frequently refusing to condemn Russia’s actions.

For China, its need to concentrate on its economy now that it has decided to end its “zero Covid” restrictions means that a stable relationship with the US would be useful.

How has this gone down in the US?

The Republicans have consistently tried to paint US president Joe Biden as someone who is weak on dealing with China, and their reaction to this incident was no different. Republican leadership in Congress called for Biden to act, while others called on Blinken to call off his trip. The political atmosphere left Blinken with little choice, and it seems sensible to postpone the talks rather than risk any further escalation in rhetoric that Beijing could seize upon.

What happens now?

The US Department of State has been at pains to point out that the postponement of Blinken’s trip is just that – and that a new trip will be organised as soon as possible. The fact that Beijing has expressed “regret” over the incident probably gives both nations a little more wriggle-room, avoiding the threat of constantly escalating rhetoric. But that will only go so far. Both countries have said that the channels of communication are still open, so it may be that this is just another roadblock to any kind of proper thaw in diplomatic relations. As such, it is something that both Washington and Beijing could do without.