What the Chester by-election result tells us about state of Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories

Even the dullest by-elections hold some interest because they are “real votes in real ballot boxes” as politicians like to say. This certainly holds true in Chester, where Labour held the seat, entirely as expected. The news has hardly troubled the headline writers, and the entire by-election attracted little coverage at the national level. You could well be forgiven for thinking, Labour held a safe seat – so what?

Well, the first thing to say is that, in a decent turnout by the standards of a by-election, the Labour swing was pretty good and broadly consistent with current opinion polling. The swing from the Conservatives in Chester compared with the 2019 result was about 14 per cent; a little lower than the national opinion polls that suggest a swing to Labour of 16 per cent. Either way, it would be even bigger than the swing Tony Blair enjoyed in 1997 (10 per cent), itself a post-war record. However, such is Labour’s low starting point from 2019 that even a Chester-scale turnaround in the course of one parliament, unprecedented as it would be, would merely make Labour the largest party. Talk of a Labour landslide was realistic during the brief Truss administration, with Labour leads of 30 percentage points, but not so much now. And we should bear in mind that even unpopular governments usually pick up some support as they head to polling day.

The swing is also in line with or better than other recent Labour performances, such as the 12.7 per cent recorded as they took Wakefield from the Conservatives earlier this year, and the 10.2 per cent in Old Bexley and Sidcup last year (10.2 per cent in relatively unpromising territory, albeit the Tories held the seat).

On the other hand, the Lib Dems have returned to their old stonking by-election ways, such as the 29.9 per cent swing they achieved to take Tiverton and Honiton in June which marked the beginning of the end for Boris Johnson. These Lib Dem results might indicate some upsets at the next election, even with a modest 10 per cent in the opinion polls. The Lib Dems held their own in Chester, which will encourage them, and points to Lib Dem gains from the Tories at the next election.

A further worry for Sunak is the presence of Reform UK. At 2.7 per cent, it edged up a little on the 2.5 per cent scored by the predecessor Brexit Party in 2019. Its national polling runs around an average of 5 per cent, with one recent survey showing the party on 9 per cent. It seems very likely that it will do what it did in 2019 and attract a protest vote primarily comprising defecting Tories. That could cost the Tories seats.

Finally, congratulations to Samantha Dixon MBE. As a by-election candidate, she was notable in two respects. First, and in stark contrast to some past Labour candidates, her campaign was gaffe-free, in line with national policy, and she had no scary extremist views ready to be picked up and propagandised by the Tory press. Second, as a former leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council, she is part of what seems to be a cross-party trend towards more local candidates and fewer parachuted in from head office. Certainly, her credentials did her no harm on polling day.

There are two more by-elections in safe Labour seats in northwest England due soon: Stretford and Urmston (15 December) and West Lancashire (to be decided for 2023). They, too, will tell us some more about what’s going through the voters’ minds. What the psephologists might really like to see is what happens in a Conservative marginal with Labour challenging, and an SNP-Labour scrap. For now, we can see that Labour is starting from so far behind it’ll need to do more to get a good working majority next time.