What does the breakdown of trade talks with Canada mean for the UK’s post-Brexit future?
As the latest round of negotiations hits the buffers, Sean O’Grady checks the progress of Project ‘Global Britain’ – and finds that instead of sunlit uplands, it’s looking more like hard cheese
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
The collapse of the Canada-UK trade talks is a further, if minor, setback to a government that promised to capitalise on “Brexit freedoms” and negotiate new and better economic relationships after the UK left the European Union. It’s an unwelcome reminder that despite the bullish talk about buccaneering “Global Britain” going out and conquering new markets, this scenario hasn’t quite materialised, and that Brexit generally hasn’t lived up to its promise – either because it was a bad idea in the first place or because it wasn’t done properly, depending on who you ask.
Mercifully, in many ways, Brexit won’t be an issue at this year’s national election – making it the first time it hasn’t been a big part of campaigning since 2014 (when Ukip won the European parliament elections). But Brexit will lurk behind many of the policy debates, and its more baleful consequences will make themselves evident during this election year, no doubt to the Conservatives’ great embarrassment. As the party that was elected to “Get Brexit Done”, such failures don’t reflect well on them... and there will be some high-profile examples of Brexit drawbacks on display through 2024.
How bad are things with the trade deals?
The 2019 Conservative election manifesto made promises such as “We will open new markets and support free trade and global growth” and “We aim to have 80 per cent of UK trade covered by free trade agreements within the next three years, starting with the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. These will be negotiated in parallel with our EU deal.” Well, they weren’t negotiated in parallel, and it’s not obvious that the 80 per cent target has been hit – certainly not if the EU “rolled over” deals are excluded.
However, some deals have been concluded, but they’ve received a mixed press. One category is agreements that are either near-identical to the ones that prevailed when the UK was in the EU (eg with Kenya) or have minor but useful improvements (such as those with Switzerland and Japan). Another set includes the genuinely fresh ones concluded rather hurriedly (Australia and New Zealand), around which there are concerns about the long-term impact on British interests, such as agriculture.
The east-Asia-based CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) numbers many dynamic economies with huge potential – such as South Korea, Singapore and Indonesia – among its members, but the beneficial effect is likely to be negligible in the short term.
In respect of the three great post-Brexit hopes, the much-vaunted trade deals with the US and China look impossible for now (even if Donald Trump comes back), and the deal with India seems permanently snagged on the question of visas and migration. At any rate, the UK left the EU just at the point when the world turned more protectionist and globalisation started to go into reverse, whereupon conditions for ambitious trade deals worsened markedly. The UK may be a beacon of free trade, but not many are attracted to it.
But EU trade is flowing freely?
Yes and no. Obviously there is not the same frictionless trade that existed under the EU, nor the free movement of labour, of course – and the economy has suffered; but companies and individuals are getting used to the new rules. Even the unique arrangements for Northern Ireland have been overhauled, to the advantage of all. However, the bad news is that the UK is finally getting round to putting its own import checks in place, having postponed them many times for fear they’d cause trouble, drive costs up, and give another unwelcome twist to the spiral of inflation.
Now it would seem that the imported goods checks cannot be put off any longer, and so, in election year, they will be imposed in two tranches – quite possibly leading to two separate bouts of disruption and bad headlines.
What are the new UK-EU checks?
From next week (Wednesday 31 January), expect delays and some empty shelves at the supermarkets, as health and phytosanitary certificates will be required for imports of “medium risk” animal products and plants, including stuff for your garden. This will include raw, chilled and frozen as well as fresh meat, and all those lovely French cheeses. All livestock will also need to have appropriate documentation.
A few weeks later, just in time for the May local elections, the checks will become more stringent and irksome. So, documents will be required for all consignments along with identity papers for animals, plus physical checks (ensuring goods have correct paperwork, eg health and phytosanitary certification on every shipment). This will take effect on 30 April.
Then, on 31 October, additional safety and security declarations will have to be made on EU imports. These will add more bureaucracy, and, handily enough for the opposition, just before the rumoured November election.
What about medicines?
There are already shortages of a variety of medicines, including antibiotics, painkillers and vaccines. These have arisen from a variety of factors linked to the disruption of global supply chains after the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and Houthi terrorism in the Red Sea. Some say Brexit has exacerbated these problems, but what seems more certain is that an EU plan to stockpile millions of doses of essential drugs, and to use its bargaining heft to secure them, will disadvantage the UK over the coming months.
We can still go on holiday, though?
Yes, but again it’ll be more complicated. The EU will introduce new checks on all UK visitors in the autumn. Under the EU entry-exit system and the European travel information and authorisation system, travellers from the UK will be required to submit additional data, plus fingerprints and facial scans, on their first visit. It will take time and cause hold-ups at airports and queues for the ferries – and will apply in respect of all EU nations except Ireland, which retains its common travel area with the UK. Once it’s completed, transit across borders should be faster, but the whole rigmarole will have to be done all over again every three years.
What will the electoral impact be?
Maybe not that big, but the constant flow of stories about yet another aspect of life no longer working won’t help our governing party. The government will be keen to deny that the delays and shortages have anything to do with Brexit, and will blame the Europeans for not spending more money on border staff. There won’t be that much point in the opposition parties, having accepted Brexit, kicking up a fuss, as the checks will still be implemented whichever party is in power (though it won’t stop Labour from pretending that it could have swung a better deal).
The voters will be able to draw their own conclusions, however, and they’re unlikely to favour the party that got Brexit done.
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