Can Labour win another two by-elections?

Calls from opposition parties for a general election are louder than ever, if made more in hope than expectation. In a sense, a slow-motion general election has been progressing for some time now, such has been the frequency of by-elections.

There have so far been 19 since the general election of December 2019 – an unusually high incidence. Of those, 10 have been held in Conservative seats, with Labour gaining four, the Liberal Democrats three and the Tories holding three (one of which, in Southend West, went uncontested following the murder of David Amess.) There may soon be two more, one in Blackpool South, and another in Wellingborough, Northamptonshire. Both are Conservative-held and winnable for Labour on current trends.

What is causing these by-elections?

Sleaze. The behaviour of MPs Peter Bone (Wellingborough) and Scott Benton (Blackpool South) has led to this particular round of electoral trouble for the government. Mr Bone was criticised by the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority for his personal conduct towards a researcher, although Mr Bone disputes the allegations and disputes the way the investigation was conducted. Mr Benton is accused of undeclared lobbying of ministers on behalf of gambling interests, again denied and disputed; his case was examined by the House of Commons standards committee.

Mr Bone was suspended from parliament for six weeks – which expired last week – over the bullying and sexual misconduct allegations. Mr Benton faces being suspended from parliament for 35 days. If the latter suspension is upheld, both men will have been suspended from the Commons for a period long enough to trigger a recall petition for a by-election; if 10 per cent of voters endorse the recall petition, a by-election follows.

What are the likely dates for these by-elections?

In Wellingborough, a recall petition has been open for some weeks, and closes on Tuesday – if 7,940 eligible voters have signed it by then, a by-election will follow. The precise timing will depend on when the government chooses to move the writ in the Commons. There seems no valid reason to delay, such as an imminent general election, so it might as well be over with by mid-February.

In Blackpool South, things will take longer. Mr Benton has the right to appeal the decision of the standards committee, and no petition can be organised until that process is complete. If he does not appeal, the by-election would probably follow later in February.

Both seats are vulnerable to a Labour challenge; traditionally, a party facing a double defeat will want to get such bad news out of the way on the same day.

Who will win in Blackpool South?

Labour is the undoubted challenger in both constituencies and, on the basis of past by-election showings and current polls, it should be looking to win both. On paper, Blackpool South is the more winnable, with a post-2019 swing of only 5.7 per cent required for it to change hands.

It is one of those coastal communities hit hard in recent decades, and where turnout tends to be low and voters perhaps generally more disaffected. Boosterish promises made by Boris Johnson about “levelling up” and the promise of Brexit have left a sour taste, four years on. It would thus provide fertile ground for Reform UK, which is the kind of protest party that thrives on resentment. Support for Reform UK would probably hit the Tory vote harder than Labour’s; that said, the Brexit party and Ukip have a pretty poor track record in the seat, which has been mostly Tory for many decades. Labour activists should be inspired by the fact it was last won by them in the Blair landslide of 1997, on a swing of 11 per cent.

Who will win in Wellingborough?

In the past, this Northamptonshire seat has been a classic Con/Lab marginal and has often been a bellwether. For example, it was won by Gordon Marsden for New Labour in 1997, and he held it until 2005, when Mr Bone won it a little ahead of the national trend. Mr Bone built up a sizeable majority in the intervening years, such that it would take a very substantial swing of about 18 per cent to turn things around. On the other hand, the 2019 election was especially propitious for the Tories because of the unusually large Leave vote. Bone was also a popular MP, but that may be less true now; if he decided to stand again, as an independent, it would probably split the Tory vote and help Labour.

Do these by-elections matter?

Yes. This close to a general election, they paint a picture of the way things could go when Rishi Sunak decides to go to the country. If Labour wins both, it will prove once again that it has broad appeal and momentum; if it does unexpectedly badly, the government might conceivably be emboldened to hold a spring election, especially if national polling starts to pick up. Given the fractious state of the Tory party at Westminster, a further reduction in the Conservative majority would hardly be welcome to the Tory whips.