What does the Remain parties’ pact for the Brecon by-election mean for politics?

The parties that want to cancel Brexit have united behind a single candidate – Jane Dodds, the Liberal Democrat – in the by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire on 1 August.

This gives Dodds a good chance of winning the seat from Chris Davies, the Conservative, who was sacked as the MP by a recall petition after he was found to have falsified his expenses.

The unity of the Remain parties contrasts with the confusion in the Peterborough by-election last month. In that election, the Lib Dems and Greens both stood candidates, winning 12 per cent and 3 per cent of the vote respectively. Change UK tried to organise a pact behind a single Remain candidate, but failed, and its candidate withdrew just before nominations closed.

But Peterborough was essentially a contest between Labour, which had held the seat until Fiona Onasanya was dismissed by a recall petition, and the Brexit Party, which was riding high on its European election success, fuelled by the Conservative government’s “betrayal” of the mandate to leave the EU.

Brecon and Radnorshire is more fertile territory for parties explicitly committed to staying in the EU. The Lib Dems won the seat in a by-election in 1985, held it for two years, and then held it from 1997 to 2015 – only losing it to Chris Davies at the last election.

So the Lib Dems already had a good prospect in this by-election – assisted by the remarkable decision by the Conservatives to allow Davies to stand again, despite the petition against him. It was not much of a sacrifice for Plaid Cymru, which is committed to EU membership, to stand aside. Its candidate won only 3 per cent of the vote at the last election.

The Green Party did not stand in 2017, so it was easy for it too to back the Lib Dem as the single Remain candidate. Change UK, weakened by the defection of Chuka Umunna to the Lib Dems and five other MPs to sit as independents, also fell into line.

Thus the bookmakers give the Lib Dems an 80 per cent chance of winning – although they did also give the Brexit Party an 80 per cent chance of winning the Peterborough by-election, which Labour held. Chris Davies has an 11 per cent chance of holding the Brecon seat and Des Parkinson of the Brexit Party has an 8 per cent chance of a spectacular upset. The weakness of the Brexit Party challenge is surprising given that the constituency is estimated to have voted by 52 per cent to Leave in the 2016 referendum.

The Remainer pact in Brecon and Radnorshire may hold limited lessons for the future, therefore. It reinforces a tendency increasingly established in local government of Lib Dems and Greens standing down in each others’ favour.

The cooperation of anti-Brexit parties puts pressure on the Labour Party by maximising the chances of the best-placed Remain candidate in any possible early general election. Those in Labour who want to see Jeremy Corbyn adopt a clearer Remain stance point to the threat from an increasingly organised common Remain front.

Equally, cooperation between the Lib Dems and the Greens – and nationalists in Scotland and Wales – draws attention to the possible division of the pro-Brexit vote between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party. Could Boris Johnson, if he becomes prime minister, really do a deal with Nigel Farage to allow him to go to the country?