Will Theresa May’s rejected Brexit deal come back from the dead under the new prime minister?
Politics Explained: Events in both big parties threaten to breathe new life into the divorce agreement – despite MPs throwing it out on three occasions
It appeared to be dead, deceased, demised, to have ceased to be – but is there still a way for Theresa May’s spurned Brexit deal to creep out of its coffin?
That is the extraordinary question being asked by many at Westminster, even as the prime minister who signed the thrice-rejected agreement packs her bags to move out of Downing Street.
Two events threaten to breathe new life into the divorce deal, one in each of the two main parties, and both fuelled by the inability of politicians to agree another route out of the crisis.
First Labour, where the fear of pro-Brexit MPs that Jeremy Corbyn is inching ever closer to full support for a Final Say referendum has prompted more to stick their necks out.
Finally, 26 of them have put their name to a “Brexit must happen” letter, demanding, significantly, that Labour “back a deal by 31 October”.
Now, everyone knows (well, everyone except the Tory leadership candidates) that the EU will not renegotiate the deal, so the only one Labour could back is the existing one.
Two of the letter’s signatories – Lisa Nandy and Gareth Snell – have publicly expressed regret for failing to vote with the government in March and they are clearly not alone.
“Many of the 26 names on the list would vote for the deal if it is brought back – and almost all of the them would if it is a free vote,” one of the Labour MPs told me, adding that “there are another 20 out there”.
But it takes two to tango... so what is the development on the Tory side, given Boris Johnson, the overwhelming favourite to move into No 10, has vowed to leave the EU on Halloween “deal or no deal”?
The twist is the growing belief, both at home and in Brussels, that the heir apparent does not mean it, that he will flunk it when faced with the true horrors of no deal.
The evidence was there when Mr Johnson refused, in Tuesday’s TV debate, to guarantee a Halloween exit and in the endorsement given by the pro-EU George Osborne, in his Evening Standard newspaper.
“Which of these potential prime ministers is most likely to persuade the Conservative Party to vote for a repackaged version of the existing deal? The one with the greatest credibility with hard Brexiteers,” the paper argued.
So, prime minister Johnson “wins” some inconsequential “concession” from Brussels and deploys his anti-EU street cred to persuade enough Tory colleagues to – in combination with Labour rebels – win a majority for the dead deal?
It still seems unthinkable – but it is no longer being ruled out.
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