Could Britain ever rejoin the European Union?

Five years ago, at 11pm on 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom ceased to be a member of the European Union – a club/superstate (according to taste) of which it had become a full member on 1 January 1973.

Of course, Brexit didn’t finally get “done”, in the sense of agreeing a new trade treaty, until some time later – memorably on Christmas Eve 2020. (The trade and cooperation agreement came into force in a formal sense on 1 May 2021, after being approved by the European parliament and adopted by the European Council.)

Nonetheless, for Brexiteers, 31 January stands beside 23 June, EU referendum day in 2016, as Britain’s “Independence Day”. It is fair to say that the enthusiasm isn’t universally shared, and the celebrations for such landmark anniversaries tend to be muted...

Nigel Farage, who shares prime responsibility with Boris Johnson for the historic shift, needs little excuse to drink a toast to his pet project 365 days a year, but there will be no official events to mark the occasion. Indeed, even Farage once remarked that Brexit had failed, albeit because it hadn’t been implemented properly (ie an even “harder” version had not been enacted).

Despite urging from Labour’s substantial body of pro-Europeans, the Treasury has declined to publish an assessment of the impact on the UK economy, though independent bodies have done so. The consensus among economists remains that the Brexit project has done more harm than good to the UK’s economy – causing a contraction in trade and investment and a long-term hit of about 4 per cent of GDP (compared with what it would have been had the UK stayed in).

There will certainly be no repeat of the thinly disguised propaganda document produced by the Department for Business and Trade last year to mark the fourth anniversary, complete with its foreword by one Kemi Badenoch (at the time the secretary of state). In it she declared: “Brexit was a resounding vote of confidence in the United Kingdom’s future – our ability to forge a path to prosperity as a free, independent, sovereign nation.

“The British people’s conviction that the UK would excel as masters of our own fate has paid dividends.” She was especially proud of the UK having joined the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

It’s not quite that, but the main parties show little interest in rehearsing the arguments that have raged about Europe for almost a decade now. That reflects an abiding sense of trauma and exhaustion on the part of the British public, who, in significant part, voted for Johnson’s “oven ready” deal at the general election of December 2019 just to get some peace and quiet.

A certain amount of “Bregret”. The latest polling suggests that the number of people who think Britain made the right decision stands at an all-time low – about 30 per cent – against 55 per cent who regard it as having been wrong. Four years ago, the comparable numbers were 40 per cent (right) and 47 per cent (wrong). Among 18- to 24-year-olds, who were too young to vote in the 2016 plebiscite, three-quarters say it was the wrong choice, and one in 10 (10 per cent) say it was right.

One very good reason is that the Labour manifesto clearly ruled out the UK rejoining the EU, its customs union or its single market, or restoring freedom of movement. The only commitment is to a closer relationship and a “reset”, lowering trade barriers and pursuing closer cooperation on defence.

There is an underlying fear of alienating Leave-inclined voters in marginal seats in the North and the Midlands that are now being menaced by Farage and Reform UK, coupled with similar trepidation about the reaction of the overwhelmingly Europhobic mainstream press and much of social media. Understandable.

Of the UK-wide parties, even the Liberal Democrats are currently only calling for Britain to rejoin the customs union, as a way to boost growth economic immediately. That’s because their electoral strength is largely based on Remain voters in Remain areas – with the exception of parts of the West Country – and they need to distinguish themselves from the Conservatives, once the “party of Europe” but now virulently Eurosceptic (if a little less obsessive and divided about it).

It’s not that obvious. While there is obvious "Bregret” and a vague wish to “turn the clock back”, the old and highly advantageous deal the UK enjoyed in the EU was lost for ever five years ago. Rejoining now would mean agreeing, at least in principle, to a number of conditions. These would include scrapping the pound and joining the euro; free movement of labour; giving up fishing grounds; and, prospectively, another traumatic referendum.

That is a less appetising package than the status quo ante. Hence the silence from Keir Starmer, devout European though he may be.

Many in the EU would like it, as of course would a solid chunk of the British electorate. It feels unlikely right now, but it is quite possible if the stars align. If the Trump administration chooses to impose tariffs on the UK and/or withdraw US forces from Europe, then teaming up with the EU again would seem essential to the national interest.

As in the 1960s and early 70s, there would also need to be a national mood of dissatisfaction about relative economic decline and the lost promise of Brexit. If Starmer was riding high in the polls and feeling confident, he could include negotiations to rejoin within the next Labour manifesto, and leave it to parliament, not a referendum, to approve the new deal, with support from all parties in the Commons apart from most Conservatives and Reform UK. We’d be back in by 2035.

Brexit, in other words, might not survive to its 20th birthday. Unlikely? So was Brexit, not so very long ago. Rule nothing out.