Will Boris and Liz Truss reignite Tory infighting at party conference?

Rishi Sunak may be forgiven for wishing his troublesome predecessors at No 10 had signed some kind of non-disclosure agreement before they were booted out of office by the Conservative Party.

Boris Johnson – after many months of behind-the-scenes squabble – is showing signs he is ready to be more open in his attacks on Sunak in his pieces for the Daily Mail and The Spectator.

Liz Truss – having been pretty quiet in the year since her infamous six-week stint at Downing Street – is suddenly very noisy indeed. The unashamed ex-Tory leader has decided defiance is the best way of protecting her legacy.

She is making a big speech on Monday to defend the radical ideas which led to the mini-Budget madness, launching a brazen attack on Mr Sunak for failing to cut spending and boost growth.

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It seems the current PM, desperate to conjure up visions of a brighter future, cannot escape the ghosts of the past. With a Covid inquiry appearance to come in November – when Nadine Dorries’s tell-all book comes out – he faces an uphill battle to reset his premiership this autumn.

The Independent has taken a closer look at the potential for fresh Tory turmoil as the PM prepares for the party conference at the beginning of October.

What damage could Boris Johnson do?

Despite his humiliating exit from the Commons earlier this summer, there are signs Mr Johnson is back on the beat, causing trouble as only he can.

The ex-PM took a swipe at Mr Sunak earlier this week, accusing him and others of “dragging their feet” over the supply of weapons to Ukraine. “Why are we always so slow?” he asked in his Spectator piece.

He also questioned the ban on American XL bully dogs in his latest Mail column, saying: “It’s not the dog that’s the problem, it’s the owner.” He went on to argue that banning dangerous dogs in the 1990s had backfired (and admitted his own “sweet” dog Dilyn had killed baby geese).

Mr Johnson has precious little support among MPs, however, with even those who had been sympathetic thoroughly fed up with him for now. But there is a potential for more damaging gossip, such as the claims made in a new book by Westminster veteran Ben Riley-Smith.

Mr Johnson is said to have told people that Rupert Murdoch’s team had intervened to persuade Mr Sunak not to quit in early 2022. It’s difficult to rule out further apparent attempts to discredit the PM.

The ex-PM is not expected to attend the party conference in Manchester during the first week of October. But might he turn up to indulge in a spot of rabble-rousing at the odd fringe event?

What trouble could Liz Truss cause?

Ms Truss is expected to hold her head up high and claim she would have achieved more growth than Mr Sunak at a speech at the Institute for Government on Monday.

The PM’s predecessor will also argue that the Sunak government has spent £35bn more than she would have done, as she renews her attack on the “anti-growth coalition”.

However discredited, Ms Truss still has significant allies in the party who are determined to push Mr Sunak and chancellor Jeremy Hunt into tax cuts.

Ms Truss is arguing that she had wanted to increase welfare benefits in line with wages rather than the higher rate of inflation – but was prevented from doing so last October because of Tory opposition.

With Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt now thought to be considering a real-terms cut to benefits, the row threatens to split the party. Those on the right want to swing the axe but influential Tory mayor of the West Midlands Andy Street has voiced moderates’ fears about punishing the poorest.

Will Sunak’s leadership be questioned?

Mr Sunak has, to some extent, succeeded in calming down his quarrelsome party. Perhaps Conservative MPs have become too exhausted to argue as furiously as they did last year.

There are signs of renewed discontent, however. While most Tories were behind his push to restore economic credibility at the start of the year, they had expected to see some sign of the polls narrowing and are growing frustrated as a result.

Conference season will be full of ministerial jostling and gossip about who is best placed to succeed Mr Sunak as leader after the general election. If things get really bad, some will start asking questions about whether those candidates are ready to do so before the election.

What other problems does the PM face this autumn?

Mr Sunak’s full plate of major issues piles higher by the day. There are two awkward by-elections in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire on 19 October. Losing both would increase despair in the party about the possibility of a wipeout next year.

Ms Dorries’s book will also prove awkward. There is the appearance of Mr Sunak, Mr Johnson and Dominic Cummings at the Covid inquiry. The “box office” events have been pushed back until November to prevent them from clashing with conference season. The PM will no doubt come under scrutiny over his Eat Out to Help Out scheme.

Then there is the Raac crisis in public buildings, the growing NHS waiting list, the ongoing small boat crossings and the thorny matter of a Supreme Court ruling on his Rwanda deportation plan. Mr Sunak must wonder why he wanted to take over from Mr Johnson and Ms Truss in the first place.