Why Boris Johnson risks losing his secret weapon

As a sort of shop steward for backbench Conservative MPs, Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, is a man worth listening to – especially so if you happen to be the current leader of the Conservative Party. More than one of Boris Johnson’s predecessors has had their career prematurely ended when they have lost the confidence of the ’22, but Johnson seems too arrogant to care. That could be his biggest error so far.

In normal times, the 1922 committee conveys the worries of Tory MPs to ministers discreetly, and they are usually taken seriously. So it is a sign of how badly relations between Johnson and his parliamentary party have become that Sir Graham has taken to speaking out publicly. He has not held back; the government is “ruling by decree” over the Covid crisis, he claims, which is another way of saying that the MPs are being ignored. and they are angry about it. There will be a Commons vote next week on the “rule of six” and other Covid-related restrictions to normal life, and a Conservative rebellion is threatened. The government may only get its way with Labour support, something of a humiliation for a party with a supposed working majority of 87

The Tory MPs are also dissatisfied with the way Brexit is being handled, up to and including the recent open declaration that the UK is ready to break international law. The leadership then had to offer some hasty concessions to avert defeat on the internal market bill, which proposed to override the UK-EU withdrawal agreement, and may well have to offer more as the bill makes its way to the House of Lords (where Johnson is even less beloved).

It was once said, with some justification, that loyalty was the Conservatives’ “secret weapon”. Tory governments in the 1950s rarely suffered from open dissent, and never lost votes in the Commons. Such times seem very distant now, and such is the modern Tory taste for factional warfare that the nominal size of the government’s majority seems almost an irrelevance: the Johnson government seems scarcely more in control of events than Theresa May’s weak and unstable regime.  

Conservative MPs of every ideological persuasion seem to have become addicted to plotting and in-fighting. Decades of division over Europe has elevated personal principle over party allegiance, and defiance became fetishised into martyrdom: Such habits have become ingrained. Indeed, those now mobilising against the rule of six are some of the same uncontrollable “Spartan” Eurosceptics who made life so difficult for May and David Cameron, their ambush skills now being deployed in the battles about Covid.  

Disloyalty carries little penalty. Ambitious MPs will have noticed how Johnson did rather well out of being disloyal to every leader he served since Michael Howard. Johnson’s pleas for unity and to end the “miserable squabbling over Europe” have a deeply ironic quality, given what he did to May. If Johnson does as he did last autumn, and removes the Tory whip from those who refuse to toe the line, he will merely create another new mini-party beyond the reach of his party managers. This time there will be no early general election at which his enemies can be purged.  Other MPs will have different reasons to kick the government. After more than a decade in power, there are a number of what John Major once called the “dispossessed and the never-possessed” dotted around the green benches behind Johnson – sacked former ministers and embittered and overlooked MPs never elevated to ministerial power and with an inflated view of their talents. More than a few other MPs would prefer to stay loyal, but are simply genuinely upset at the direction the government is taking, its incompetence and its refusal to listen to its own MPs. Apparently Tory MPs have a new WhatsApp group called ‘What the f*** is going on?’

What indeed? Johnson’s treatment of his MPs is curious. At a recent chaotic Zoom meeting he failed to exercise his supposed charm, and even if he doesn’t think that most of his parliamentary colleagues are contemptible he certainly acts as though he does. He is rarely seen in the tea rooms and Sir Graham’s public protests suggest he doesn’t see much point in listening to their advice, let alone acting on it. Johnson’s chief adviser Dominic Cummings has written on his blog about the average Tory MP’s lack of brains and lack of empathy for the poor. But such open contempt is dangerous if you’re no longer regarded as a winner. “When you keep whacking a dog don’t be suprised when it bites you back” is how one of Johnson’s unhappy followers sees things.  

The size of Johnson’s majority is also something of a hindrance to winning the unanimous support of his MPs. Landslides make it easier for MPs to rebel and signal a willingness to stand up for their constituents, say,  safe in the knowledge that the government is unlikely to lose the vote as a result of their virtue signalling. But rebellions and U-turns are not the inevitable consequence, usually, of a thumping majority. The fact is that the government, and the prime minister, is in real trouble.  

The issue is now competence, and in particular the capacity of Johnson to lead the country for the next four years, and then to deliver another term of office for Tory MPs. That is a long way off, but the scale and speed of Johnson’s fall from grace is concentrating minds. The PM’s personal approval ratings among the public have plummeted, partly because of Sir Keir Starmer’s arrival, and his party’s lead over Labour has evaporated. Robbed of Jeremy Corbyn as an easy foil and a loud claque of supporters in the Commons chamber, Johnson is a poor performer in parliament. The current rumour that Johnson finds it difficult to survive on his £150,000-a-year salary suggests he is out of touch with a nation facing a pandemic and mass unemployment. A succession of U-turns and policy failures have damaged confidence, and there is a growing feeling that the government is losing its grip, and whatever coherence it still possesses is down to the influence of Cummings, a man widely disliked and distrusted by Conservative MPs. Many of them tried to get him fired over breaking lockdown rules in the spring, and they still want him gone. Jettisoning him might well take the heat off Johnson, but he is stubbornly holding on to his Svengali. The MPs do not understand , let alone approve, of how this unelected figure –not even a party member – has come to have more power over the PM than the massed ranks of Tory backbenchers.  

Yet Sir Graham and his parliamentary colleagues would do well themselves to appreciate the changing balance of power within the party. For while Johnson is losing support among his MPs, many of the grassroots members still love him, and it is an open question as to how they would react if, in extremis, there was a move to oust him, either through a vote of confidence or through subtler methods. After all, the membership gave Johnson a convincing win over Jeremy Hunt only last year. That said, though, Johnson’s satisfaction rating among Tory activists has slumped alarmingly in recent months. After his election triumph last December he enjoyed an impressive +92.5 score among the membership; it is now +24.6, way below Rishi Sunak, for example.

Whether Johnson takes heed of his MPs in the challenging weeks ahead will define his premiership. If he manages to up his game he will hang on. A successful, orderly Brexit, better management of the Covid crisis and a rejuvenating ministerial reshuffle should restore some of Johnson’s lost prestige. But the odds and his record in power are to against  any of that happening.