Is Boris Johnson at risk of being toppled by Tory MPs?

It has been a bad week for Boris Johnson. Words don’t hold too much value for this prime minister, so no doubt he will have shrugged off the negative headlines that have come his way during the gathering storm at Westminster.

But he won’t be able to shrug off the cold, hard polling numbers. The latest digits show that the swirling, all-enveloping hurricane of sleaze claims is now having an impact on the Tory party’s popularity, and on Mr Johnson’s electability.

The prime minister has allowed himself a cavalier approach to scandal, knowing that the idea of bad behaviour was helpfully priced into his image as a colourful cad.

Scrutiny over the funding of his luxury curtains? “A farrago of nonsense,” he smirked. Questions about his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri? “A lot of shot and shell,” he sneered. Claims he shouted “Let the bodies pile high” during the Covid crisis? “Total rubbish,” he scoffed.

But No 10’s absurdly botched attempt to rewrite disciplinary rules and save former minister Owen Paterson – which opened the floodgates on Tory MPs’ second jobs and other interests – finally seems to have cut through with the public.

The latest Savanta ComRes poll gives Labour a six-point advantage over the Conservatives. Two-thirds of voters told YouGov they viewed the Tories as “very sleazy”. And two-thirds said Mr Johnson should apologise for his handling of the Paterson debacle.

Tory MPs have been in panic mode since the start of the week, when polling began to show that the myriad of sleaze claims was shrinking the party’s once-solid lead.

Many of the younger “red wall” Tory MPs who won their seats in 2019 remain exasperated at Mr Johnson’s disastrous, unforced error in backing Mr Paterson, and at his failure to get on top of the scandal by pointing a way forward on reform.

Jill Mortimer, who triumphed for the Tories in Hartlepool only last year, openly castigated Downing Street’s effort to save Mr Paterson, calling it a “colossal misjudgement”.

It’s not only red wall Conservatives who are dismayed. One senior Tory backbencher told The Independent this week: “I don’t know anybody who thinks the last week has been well handled – and that includes government ministers who were involved in what was done.”

So could Johnson be at serious risk of a putsch? One Tory MP told the Daily Mail they had seriously considered sending in a letter of no confidence in Mr Johnson – usually the first step in backbench efforts to replace their leader.

It is too early, perhaps, for leadership-challenge speculation. But the Tory party can be shockingly ruthless when it comes to getting rid of leaders when they sniff an election loss in the air.

Sir Malcolm Rifkind has warned that Mr Johnson is in danger of being seen as an electoral “liability”, and is therefore at risk of being toppled by his own MPs, as Margaret Thatcher was. The parliamentary party is savage when prime ministers are “deemed to have outlived their usefulness”, said the Tory grandee.

Of the past four Conservative PMs, only John Major was afforded the quiet dignity of stepping down after a general election defeat. In the case of Theresa May, the writing was on the wall even after she won an election.

Ms May’s 2017 election campaign performance was so bad that many of her MPs made clear in the immediate aftermath of the election that she wouldn’t be wanted for another.

As some in the party pause to ask themselves how long a Johnson premiership has left to run, it’s worth noting that he isn’t particularly popular with Tory members any more.

The ConservativeHome website’s regular satisfaction surveys of the rank and file have shown Mr Johnson slipping further down the table of best-performing cabinet members, completely outshone by favourites Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and David Frost.

The days ahead don’t get any easier for the beleaguered PM. He faces a grilling over his handling of the sleaze storm in a two-hour session in front of parliament’s liaison committee next week. He may have to make do with blustering through the session without a major blunder.

But waffle won’t cut it for much longer. Unless he can demonstrate that he has a plan to reset his government and remove the stain of sleaze from his party, Tory MPs may begin to wonder if someone else would be better suited to wipe the slate clean.