Will Boris Johnson survive Partygate despite police issuing fines?

It should be a hugely significant event. Metropolitan Police detectives have concluded that the law was broken on numerous occasions at Downing Street and Whitehall departments during the Covid-19 crisis.

UK government staff involved in telling the nation to follow strict laws aimed at saving lives have been found to have broken those laws, and 20 fines have so far been handed out for wrongdoing.

Yet, Boris Johnson is no longer “battling” to save his premiership, as was the case during the Partygate scandal’s most intense period in late January and early February.

The Ukraine crisis has helped shift the mood among Conservative backbenchers, many of whom were itching to get rid of Johnson only six weeks ago. It appears unlikely that the first Scotland Yard fines will move them back to a state of dismay with their leader.

Johnson has certainly had worse days. The drip-drip-drip of Partygate stories – from initial reports of boozy shindigs, to a photo of the PM with wine drinkers in the No 10 garden, to admissions about a birthday party and leaving drinks – had put him under huge pressure from his own MPs by the end of January.

Senior Tory MP Steve Baker predicted then that it looked like “checkmate” for Johnson. Former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson claimed it was a matter of “when not if” when it came to a leadership challenge.

Much of Westminster was convinced there would be a no-confidence vote triggered by 54 letters from Tory MPs. The big debate was over whether he would survive the vote.

But the picture looks quite different now. Many Tory MPs like how Johnson has handled the government’s response to Russian aggression, and there is no appetite for a leadership contest in the midst of an international crisis. The party has even ticked up slightly in the polls.

There is a danger of a myth now setting in that the Ukraine war “saved” Johnson from his Partygate fate. It’s worth remembering that much of the heat had gone out of the scandal even before Putin’s invasion.

Timing seemed to favour the fortunate Tory leader. The Met police decision to announce its investigation just as Cabinet Office official Sue Gray was set to publish her report on 31 January. So the full civil service report would have to wait.

Increasingly tired Tories who said they had been “waiting for Sue Gray” said they would have to “wait for the full Sue Gray” before passing final judgement on Johnson’s alleged sins.

Still, the issuing of fines remains moment of potential peril for the prime minister. We don’t yet know if the PM has been penalised for his own role in attending three drinks events.

If he avoids this wave of fixed penalty notices, the force has warned that more fines – beyond the “low-hanging fruit” – could be on the way in the days ahead.

Labour and the other parties say the Metropolitan Police decision proves Johnson lied to the British people – pointing to his previous claims that “all guidance was followed”. If Johnson is fined, the opposition would never tire of reminding the public of their prime minister is a law-breaker.

However, Johnson looks likely to avoid another flurry of Tory no-confidence letters ahead of the May local elections. The views of backbenchers will depend on the results, and the polling in the months afterwards.

Poll guru John Curtice has suggested his may be “fighting a losing battle” in his efforts to recover personal popularity. But Tory pollster Lord Hayward thinks it may be possible for Johnson to recover, having had “a hold” on the British public like no other politician.

Johnson has proved to be the Tory King Midas – producing gold for his party every time he is asked to shake hands with the electorate. He will only come under serious pressure again if MPs are sure his touch has gone forever.