Is Boris Johnson facing a ‘dangerous moment’ as Tory leader?

Over the course of a week Boris Johnson has been forced to grapple with a series of self-inflicted wounds, including further interrogation over Christmas “gatherings” in No 10 during lockdown restrictions and the ramifications of a botched attempt to block Owen Paterson’s suspension from the Commons, which resulted in the North Shropshire by-election.

The Conservatives lost the seat on Friday for the first time since 1832, with the Liberal Democrats overturning a 23,000 majority in a Leave-voting area – a historic repudiation of the governing party and a major blow to the prime minister’s authority.

Coupled with this, the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, especially in London, is forcing ministers to grapple with the question of whether any further restrictions are needed. According to leaked scenarios from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), hospitalisations could peak at 3,000 a day and more stringent measures may be needed “very soon”.

But the prime minister is well aware of the crumbling support on his back benches for further restrictions, after suffering his greatest rebellion since becoming prime minister, as almost 100 Tory MPs rebelled over the government’s “plan B” strategy for Covid.

After one of the most turbulent weeks of his leadership, speculation has inevitably turned to whether Mr Johnson faces a challenge to his position.

Under Conservative Party rules, at least 15 per cent of the parliamentary party must submit letters of no confidence in the leader to the chair of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs in order to trigger a confidence vote. Figures on how many letters have been penned (or emailed) are almost certainly guesswork, given it is a closely guarded secret by the 1922 chair Sir Graham Brady.

The threshold was last reached when Theresa May was prime minister in the winter of 2019 – a year and a half after her political authority all but evaporated after the ill-fated election gamble, which lost the Tories a majority in parliament.

After the by-election defeat on Friday, Sir Roger Gale, who revealed he had submitted a letter of no confidence, warned: “The prime minister is now in last orders time. One more strike and he’s out.” The former vice-chair of the 1922 Committee also said that the prime minister had “weeks, months, a year to sort himself out”.

Former leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, however, urged the party to get behind Mr Johnson, while others pointed to a lack of an obvious successor while the country continues to battle the Covid pandemic against a bleak economic backdrop.

It doesn’t appear that the party is on the cusp of an imminent leadership challenge, but Conservative backbenchers – incensed at the government’s handling of a myriad of issues – have put the prime minister on notice, and tensions are likely to grow. Many in the party would agree that he faces a “dangerous moment” – as Sir Malcolm Rifkind, who served as a cabinet minister under John Major, told The Independent.

“There are not going to be demands for him to step down next week, or next month, or whatever,” he said. “But it has become a serious proposition that the prime minister might be losing the confidence of his parliamentary colleagues.”