Is Boris Johnson on a ‘chicken run’ to the safe Tory seat of Henley?

John Howell, the Conservative MP for Henley, is to stand down at the next election. He has been the local member since his predecessor resigned after winning the 2008 race to be elected mayor of London. Despite protestations from the parties involved, there has been speculation about a Johnson return.

Is Boris Johnson on the chicken run?

So some say. Johnson has reportedly used some of his vast earnings as a former PM to bag himself a mansion in Oxfordshire, and he and his wife Carrie have been investigating suitable schools in the area for their young children. Henley, in a corner of the county just across the border from Buckinghamshire and Berkshire, is close enough to London but opens up the possibility of a comfortable county-set lifestyle vaguely near the Cotswolds.

More than anything, Henley is easier to hold for the Conservatives than Johnson’s current marginal seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in what promises to be a difficult election next year. Moving back to Henley would reward Johnson with many years of security through a solid parliamentary base.

What about Uxbridge and South Ruislip?

Ordinarily, Johnson would be reselected to fight the election in the constituency he already represents, having won it in 2015, 2017 and, as prime minister, in December 2019. However, thanks partly to his own poor record in office, Uxbridge is now a highly winnable seat for Labour. Even without the special personal baggage Johnson brings to any enterprise, Uxbridge would be difficult to hold given the current unpopularity of the Conservatives and Brexit, with which Johnson is closely associated. He has a very vulnerable majority of 7,219, or 15 per cent over Labour.

Perhaps conscious of the way such factors might play in Johnson’s mind, the local Conservative constituency association has moved to retain him and organised their selection for the next general election and so Johnson is the presumed candidate, for now.

Might there be a by-election soon in Uxbridge anyway?

Yes. If the House of Commons committee of privileges rules that Johnson recklessly misled parliament and sanctions him with suspension of two weeks or greater, a recall petition for a by-election is opened up. If 10 per cent of voters of Uxbridge and South Ruislip sign up, the by-election will go forward. Johnson could then either walk away and find a new seat (such as Henley) or he could fight valiantly, in typically pugnacious style, and lose like Teddy Roosevelt’s “man in the arena”. In the event of a defeat, he could seek his fortunes elsewhere “with honour”; after all, his great hero Churchill represented five seats for two parties.

What are Johnson’s chances of winning Henley at the next election?

Pretty good. Since the constituency was formed in 1885, Henley has been held by a Tory, with the exception of one brief Liberal interlude (1906-10). Its other most notable former member is Lord Michael Heseltine. Howell bequeaths a majority of 14,053 or 23.9 per cent over the Liberal Democrats, which is a substantial cushion; the Tory vote hasn’t dipped below 50 per cent in Henley since 1974.

Does that mean he could lead his party again?

Like Lazarus, Johnson has a habit of remarkable recoveries, and not just from the nasty bout of Covid he suffered in 2020. Perversely, a forced by-election in Uxbridge this year would be tactically easier for him than fighting and losing the seat at the next election, or trying to wriggle out of it and get himself on the “chicken run” to a safer seat.

If Johnson lost in Uxbridge at the election, widely expected at the end of 2024, he would be excluded not just from parliament but also from any post-defeat loss leadership contest. This is the fate that befell Tony Benn in 1983 and Michael Portillo in 1997. Even if he might not have much chance, Johnson would no doubt like the option to remain open. A very heavy Tory defeat could leave the field wide open and if the ball was to come loose from the scrum again, he might conceivably grab it. His popularity among activists remains relatively high, and a comeback as leader of the opposition would be on.