Is Boris Johnson oven-ready for a return to the Tory front line?

Voters in Britain suffering an unusually cold and rainy summer will no doubt have been heartened by an Instagram post from Carrie Johnson showing the former prime minister’s latest family on holiday “in beautiful Sardinia”. Perhaps that was just her way of scotching rumours that Boris Johnson is about to give up the Mediterranean sun and rush back to go door-knocking in those crucial East Midlands marginals. But rumours of some sort of Johnson comeback have been swirling on and off almost since he was pushed out of the Commons for lying to parliament. Some believe, to borrow a phrase, that he is oven-ready for a return...

They are that Johnson is being “drafted” by a desperate Conservative campaign to counter the threat from Nigel Farage and Reform UK. The Tories are organising a direct mailshot of letters signed by Johnson to wavering Tory supporters. Johnson is following the current Conservative narrative in the letters warning that a vote for Reform is not only a vote for Keir Starmer but also to put Labour in power “for a generation”.

Johnson’s also cropped up on social media endorsing Tory candidates. His often lazily written newspaper columns have also backed the Tories, though without much reference to the present prime minister. Some sources close to Johnson say the wounds from Sunak’s decisive role in his ousting in 2022 haven’t healed, which stands to reason.

It’s been also reported that Johnson has been in contact with Tory campaign chief Isaac Levido, who also ran Johnson’s “get Brexit done” election in 2019. The Tories, ideally, would like to get Johnson on the campaign trail because he can “cut through” to the electorate.

Johnson’s brand of populist nationalist cakeism is undeniably popular among Tory grassroots, parts of the electorate and a solid section of the party’s MPs. He has a similar appeal to Farage in that respect, telling hard-up voters that they can enjoy American-style tax cuts and European-style public services, and promising a Brexity paradise that never quite arrives. Johnson’s presence would be a sensation, and it would boost the morale of party workers and candidates.

He’s a liability. For many voters, he is indelibly associated with Partygate and sleaze, lying to the House of Commons, and failing to honour the fanciful promises in his 2019 manifesto, notwithstanding the intervention of various economic crises. He would also find it difficult to keep a straight face while trying to be effusive about Rishi Sunak or, for that matter, David Cameron, and might well veer off from the policies set out in the manifesto. There would be gaffes, calculated and otherwise. He might well, in short, repel more voters than he would attract.

No. Despite some warm words from Sunak, indirect contact and some text exchanges about Gaza, the prime minister and his predecessor haven’t spoken since the election was called. Johnson is apparently waiting for Sunak to personally ask him for help. Beleaguered as he is, that may be too much for Sunak’s remaining pride; and it would make Sunak, still nominally in charge of the party and the country, look incredibly weak. Besides, Italy is such a lovely place to be at this time of year.

Similar considerations apply to this highly divisive personality. He isn’t standing as an MP, which means he is disqualified from running for the leadership. They could change the rules, and have a party leader “in the country”, but he obviously couldn’t operate as leader of the opposition in the Commons. Other candidates, such as James Cleverly (an old Johnson ally), Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Penny Mordaunt might, if they hang on to the seats, be more attractive to those in the party wanting to “move on” from the past.

But they lack his charisma, and they’d have to find something for him to do to keep him from being a distracting presence over their shoulder. They could make him party chair, though he might consider the forbidding task of rebuilding the party organisation not well suited to his talents. We don’t yet know what Johnson thinks the party should do about Farage – appease him, and absorb Reform, or try to destroy him? Is Johnson still committed to net zero? The Rwanda plan? These are likely to be major faultlines within the party.

The fact he hasn’t sought or accepted a peerage suggests he’s not given up on politics and, as he once used to say, if the ball comes out of the scrum, then he might seize the opportunity for an attempt at a comeback – though only if he can be reasonably sure of winning. Meantime, there’ll be the newspaper columns, the odd intervention, maybe a lucrative volume of memoirs, and other books and media work. For good or ill, we’ve not seen the last of Johnson.