What to expect from Boris Johnson’s cabinet reshuffle

You’ve have to be absolutely determined to get what you want because if you compromise you’ll live to regret it afterwards,” says Lance Price, a former deputy communications director under Tony Blair, when asked what advice he would give Boris Johnson when conducting his reshuffle.

“If you keep on somebody that you don’t think is very good, that they’ve made a terrible fuss and it all gets too embarrassing, so because you run out of patience just to let them stay – don’t ever do that,” he adds.

Cabinet ministers will hardly be appreciative of this advice as they nervously await a phone call from the Downing Street switchboard to inform whether they are up, down or out of Johnson’s top team.

After he became prime minister in July, Johnson demonstrated his willingness to be ruthless – sacking more than half of Theresa May’s cabinet, and installing old comrades from the Vote Leave group.

And following the decisive general election victory in December, the PM now has the political authority to drastically reshape the cabinet and send underperforming ministers to the back benches.

Speculation will undoubtedly be rife over the weekend, with No 10 indicating the reshuffle will take place ahead of the February recess on Thursday. According to various briefings published over the past few weeks, Johnson could also streamline his top team and scale back the number of ministers who attend cabinet.

There is also the question of his plans for wider government. Dominic Cummings, one of Johnson’s most senior advisers, is said to be arguing for a complete restructure of Whitehall.

The future of the Department for International Development, which administers the foreign aid budget, could be on the table next week, and whether the prime minister assigns a minister to take charge of trade negotiations with the EU remains to be seen.

Those in line for demotions of sackings could include Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, who embarrassed the government during the general election campaign with his incendiary comments on Grenfell Tower. He was confined to his constituency for the remainder of the election.

The futures of those who seem to have fallen off the radar may also be in doubt, including Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, the work and pensions secretary Therese Coffey and the attorney general Geoffrey Cox.

Others, such as the chief secretary to the Treasury Rishi Sunak and the communities secretary Robert Jenrick, appear to have impressed the prime minister. The former was given a high-profile role in the election campaign, representing the Conservatives during two televised debates against opposition parties. Big promotions could be in store.

But Downing Street will also be keen to avoid gaffes of previous reshuffles that made the process appear shambolic.

Reorganising the Conservative Party headquarters – CCHQ – in January 2018, the party erroneously broadcast on social media that Chris Grayling had been appointed as Tory chair by Theresa May. It was removed within minutes, and shortly after Brandon Lewis emerged from No 10 with the job.